The Super Bowl vibe is always an exciting time leading up just after the NFC and AFC championship game. Traditional sports media as ESPN, FoxSports and CBS Sports begin to sensationalize key players, coaches and matchups, all while influencing the publics opinion on who will win the Super Bowl, and more importantly what team is the favorite which the public sways towards with their money at online sports books.
This psychological influence from mass media, among others that we’ll get into, contribute to the top 3 mistakes most sports bettors make when betting on the Super Bowl – and which mistakes you should be aware to avoid when making your Super Bowl predictions and placing some money on the big game.
Its common knowledge your NFL handicappers, sports investors and avid recreational sports bettor will tend to either stick to the betting system or betting strategy they’ve used all season that works, or make subtle adjustments in their betting system for big events in determining their Super Bowl prediction, where the best value resides on the spread, and of course the over / under and exotic prop bets.
These football bettors may take minor agreement and some influential statistics from the traditional media, but the mass public opinion are more prone to swing opinions and their Super Bowl picks from this media. To add to this, there is statistical data to support the publics influence on their Super Bowl picks from their social connections across social media platforms as Twitter, Facebook, and sports betting forums.
TIP: Historically the favorite has won the Super Bowl, BUT within the last 10 years this trend has shifted to the under dog. See below for more details.
You would not think that an experienced NFL bettor would put much weight on the publics opinion for big game events as the Super Bowl; albeit a contrarian betting strategy and betting against the squares has statistically been profitable. Why is that? Because the public betting psychology for big game events as the Super Bowl tend to be more emotional than strategic.
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However, just the sheer volume of the mass collective public opinion where hard earned dollars are placed at the sports books or in Vegas, can sway the sports books to adjust the Super Bowl odds to balance the line on both sides to appeal bets on both sides.
But the publics Super bowl predictions aside, veteran NFL bettors know that the Super Bowl is a game like any other, relegating the uniqueness of the event to questions about the psychological state of the players and field conditions.
But this article is not to decipher the betting strategy of betting against the publics opinion, or a contrarian strategy, and instead help the sports investor identify the top three mistakes made betting on the Super Bowl.
So while expert NFL handicappers and football bettors strive to avoid common mistakes made by the recreational bettor or gambler, such as betting it all on one line or play, there are a few other factors to consider when selecting your Super bowl pick.
So put emotional betting aside, if you wager on your Super bowl pick with an aim on a profitable return, you have to do it in a way that ensures that you break even, or pad your bankroll for the next season.
So lets look at the top 3 mistakes Super Bowl bettors make when selecting their Super Bowl picks, and making a wager on the big game.
Mistake #3: Betting Too Early Or Late
Oftentimes, the best bet is the one you missed, or did not see due to tunnel vision. The Super Bowl is significantly important that bookmakers work incredibly hard to make sure the odds are even to attract wagers on both sides.
In very rare cases, the sports books miss when it comes to “evening out the bets“, but while those bets are being evened out, it’s important to seal a bet you consider a winner.
While betting to early does occur, it’s far more common to bet too late. Betting on the Super Bowl to late will virtually guarantee you receive the worst odds (generally speaking) and have missed any value that was on the table. Why? Because the Super Bowl lines have already been evened out. In such a case, it’s best, if available, to resort to spread betting to reduce the risk of playing on the money line. If you missed out on your perfect bet, switch to betting defensively.
It’s no different than investing on a stock in the equity markets. Buy-in when there is value, and before the it hits new highs. While it’s the dream to pick a bottom, or a top, the safest and still most profitably way is to average out your buys when there are indicators the stock is nearing a bottom, or hit bottom and beginning to switch to an upward trend.
The same can be said for the sports books. Monitor and compare odds at various sports books, and try to interpret what factors are influencing changes in odds from one book to another – among this finding value opportunities with sports books who are late to adjust their lines.
IntelligentBettingTips.com now offers for free the new tool for sports bettors to easily monitor, compare and track various sports books lines over time across various sports as the NFL. Sports bettors click to ‘watch’ specific games, view the complete historical odds trend for the specific game / event, and soon set alerts to get notified when the odds have changed.
Recommended Super bowl betting reading:
- 3 insights that show betting value for Super Bowl
- 5 NFL Super Bowl betting tips
- 3 Superbowl betting tips online sportsbooks don’t want you to know
Mistake #2: Inconsistent Betting
Prop bets, such as squares, are incredibly popular for the Super Bowl. If you’re going to bet on prop bets, don’t make a rookie mistake of betting on them randomly. This is among the #2 mistake made by sports bettors betting on the Super Bowl.
If the football bettor has a specific scenario to wager on, it’s important to play out that scenario when making the prop bets.
If the football bettor is only doing prop bets, then the should work backwards through the game to see where they are going with the investment.
Close to the biggest mistake that bettors make this time of year is “crazy betting”– betting strangely in the hope that something sticks.
For example, if you’ve invested substantially in your Super Bowl prediction, that’s a surefire way to make absolutely sure that you lose everything. Don’t fall victim to this #2 Super Bowl betting mistake, and instead bet consistently across the board. And if you are using hedge betting, do that consistently too. There’s no such thing as “90%” safe.
Mistake #1: Betting on the Favorite
Ok – the number one betting mistake made every year on the Super Bowl is betting on the favorite.
While the favorite has won 2/3 of the time looking over all the historical Super Bowls, that number discounts a prevailing trend towards the underdog in the past decade (the underdog has won 8 out of 10 times since 2004).
Again, similar the Wall Street and stock picking, unless there’s strong evidence against a prevailing trend, it’s better to discount guesses to the contrary.
Super Bowl underdogs have won six out of the last seven Super Bowls– so as a bettor, ask yourself if it’s a smart bet to wager on the favorite? (It’s important to keep in mind that the favorite is stacked towards making things even, so one thing to watch is the alleged “wisdom of crowds”– if you can’t tell who the favorite is, who’s everybody around you betting on, assuming there’s no local bias? It might be smart to bet against that.)