expert nfl handicappers

Why 90% of sports betting systems don’t work

I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks.

The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away free picks. The unfortunate, and fortunate case of the sports betting and handicapper industry is that the 80/20 business school rule applies.

The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL bettors lose.

Even so the general line of thinking with the avid sports bettor, investor and sharp, “why would someone sell their winning picks when they could bet on the picks themselves”. It’s a valid comment and applies to most betting systems touted in the market.

But then there is the other 20%, and in the handicapper market our teams years of experience has taught us this more 10%. That is 10% of sports betting systems can work, with a caveat attached. And when the services are used as their recommended, it separates the difference between the sports gambler and sports investor.

Just as in investing in stocks on NASDAQ or Dow, its still a gamble or bet if no advantageous information is received before the stock moves. And even being on the inside, their can be still risk, which a prudent bankroll or money management and strategy (or betting) strategy must be applied.

But back to sports investing. Within the 10% of quality expert handicappers (and I’m not saying winning, or losing) sports betting systems, that experienced bettors will either

a) have their own methods and prediction models to make their sports betting decision and picks
b) the sports bettors will reply on the “reputable” names in the market for their sports picks and investing advise. Do these reputable handicapper outlets win all the time? Hell no, they don’t. But they do understand the statistics and strategy necessary to make sports betting a profitable investment.

Is problem with “a” is that while many sports bettors will have their own approach to making their picks, the vast majority do not apply the appropriate strategy or bankroll management. They throw their money down on their favorite team, from a tip or some other random reason. This is why the majority lose.

The problem with “b” is a love / hat relationship. Those sports bettors or investors who buy into the reputable handicapper services get the high off their wins, and clouded by their loses. Those however who apply a risk tolerance system to bankroll management factoring in risk/reward on selected expert picks, and timely betting strategy, will come on top with patience. Just as investors do in the equity markets.

Between “a” and “b” is where the line in the sand is drawn. The 10% reputable sports prediction services in the market, fall into three segments that I’ve found define and segregate the type of sports bettors who are attracted to these services.

Sports Gamblers
In the 10% of reputable expert sport pick services the handicapper services have their own betting system sold as a service, has attained a decent reputable status and attract who I group as the sports gamblers.

These sports gamblers buy one or a few sports picks a month. They win some weeks lose other weeks, but the clear difference is that they understand basic sports betting strategy, find the handicapper customer service reliable.

These sports gamblers generally follow one or two major sports, digest each picks selection for how and why the handicapper chose their pick, and will place their bet at their preferred sportsbook. The sports gamblers do it for entertainment and in some cases think of themselves as a professional sports gambler…albeit their expectations are a bit far fetched. Is this wrong? No…as long as the sports gamblers expectations are realistic and understand the sports betting and prediction market game.

Sports Investors
Then within the 10% and on the other side of the line there are the sports investors. Sports investors view of sports betting is different to the latter. They view sports as an investment, not gambling. They don’t view their hard earned dollars placed on a game as a means to an end to justify the thrill of some money backing a game. Ok, it does make it more exciting, but the sports investor makes sound decision, understands market/game fluctuations and does not tied the emotions to their strategy and betting / investing decisions.

Sports investors view of sports betting brings about their interest more in the strategy, money management and client service. They untie their emotions to their money, and confident in the long term results. They don’t let off-weeks steer their strategy off course.  Sure, its ok to take a break and re-strategize as the market is still unpredictable.

The sports investor understands the various and different betting strategies in the market, see the opportunities in the lines at the sports books, and they rely on sports investment services (or some handicappers) as their investment information service, similar to what many individuals do with their stock or equity investing.

The benefit of a quality sports picks or investment service is if they’re reputable with a strong track record, the sports bettor or investor is investing into their time for the research and advise.

Time is money, and a sports bettors time to spent on prediction modelling, sifting through historical data, game results, injuries, timely news, moving lines, etc. has a cost to it…whether the sports bettors time, or bought as a service with a sports picks service.

Among the sports investor members at, the one common view from our surveying found the majority purchased a sports investment services as ours for the same reasons they purchase similar information service for their market investing. Time and intelligent, sound advise.

Just as these members are also equity market investors who rely strongly on 3rd party information services to perform the investment analysis, audit market conditions, and make sound recommendations based on this data, so do is their view in a sports investment services, along with a strong focus on client service and money management and strategy.

A good sports investing services will provide strong transparency into their performance, and just like the reputable handicapper services, will educate and tell the sports bettor or investor upfront that its not all about winning each pick.

A sound betting strategy over time, with prudent bankroll management and sports betting system or model that is sound enough to produce winning picks equivalent picks greater than 53% and spread opportunities can quickly turn a profitable portfolio for their clients.

But to stay on point with the 10% of reputable and legitimate sports betting systems, handicappers and sports investment services in the market, you should ask yourself why type are you. Are you a sports gambler that likes the thrill on the occasional weekend and buys a NFL pick from an expert handicapper, or a sports investor who relies more on the betting system transparency, strategy, performance and client support?

To figure out whats best for you, I view this (and this is my opinion so it may not work for you), but to put a cost to your time, and a conservative financial goal in mind over a reasonable period. Know your sport betting strategy and know your bankroll management strategy. And lastly, don’t play every pick. Play the opportunities that data supports strong performing plays over time.


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