NFL Preseason Betting

Reasons to not bet NFL preseason…sometimes

NFL Preseason BettingNFL preseason finally kicks off the second week of August which for many expert NFL handicappers and sports bettors is their lease favorite time of the NFL betting season. The statistics aren’t in, teams are figuring out how to build synergy and overall it can be an unpredictable time of year when investing in NFL football.

During the NFL preseason teams typically don’t play at full strength, key players hold back and coaches are getting a feel for new strategy. Expert handicappers, sharps, investors and your recreational sports bettor walk into an unpredictable time of year. Seasoned investors and many sharps though also see the investment value to minimize their bankroll investment during the NFL preseason until more ‘stars align’. Look at this similar to a new hot stock on the NASDAQ and its IPO, such as Facebook back in June. There was much hype leading up to their kick off, but the days following it just didn’t perform. Market conditions were the same, investor sentiment loosely changed, but overall like many IPO’s, and like the preseason of almost any sport, it can be quite unpredictable and simple chase the favorites based on the past season.

Some expert football handicappers will argue there is merit to betting on the NFL preseason, and some of them are right in their reasons, but in most investors views its simply increased risk. The sports investor who collects the dividends understands its profit over time, and throughout the NFL season there will be highs and lows….expected, but with proper management and investment approach, by the end of the season, the good investor should be turning a +10% ROI. Though we’ve seen some members return +300% and others less than 10%. The differences between these is risk management and strategy.

Selecting your NFL picks in the preseason for the clear winner is just not as easy as picking the favorite team or most popular team. If you’re playing your NFL picks this way…you’re likely a sports gambler, not an investor. So stick with the entertainment value and adrenaline rush of those games…the nature of a gambler.

But if your a sports investor, or still the sports gambler, consider these NFL preseason tips when selecting your football picks for the NFL preseason.

1. Investment Timing

When risking your initial NFL preseason bankroll, consider the timing in which you place your bets. Preseason NFL lines will vary with various online sportsbooks, and they should all be compared as many online sportsbooks don’t give as much emphasize into the preseason NFL lines, as they would in the regular season. This means the lines won’t move as much with this lack of knowledge and insight by the online sportsbook.

But when the sportsbooks lines start to move to draw action, then typically there has been some significant change in the sportsbooks view – meaning there is a attribute of the match up that has been released or become known – such as the starting quarterback of star player, which can be indicative to the game strategy approach.  So if as part of your NFL preseason betting strategy, if you have a good indication which direction the team will go with their quarterback before its published, you can take advantage of the lines with the sportsbooks, or, watch for sportsbooks that immediately adjust their lines, and take advantage of online sportsbooks that are much slower to update. This NFL preseason tip will simply help you secure the best price value.

2. Expert Handicapper Historical Performance

Consider subscribing to a handicapper service of sports investment service as  that offers historical insight and transparency on expert football handicappers performance over time.

Performance tools to understand how a seasoned expert NFL handicapper has performed in the last X years in the NFL preseason, can be a good indicator (or bad), on where to put your investment. for example offers its members access to a pool of +20 expert handicappers, many of whom offer NFL picks. From this pool of expert NFL handicappers, members have the tools to query in real-time the handicappers performance by sport and by time to get an immediate insight on the expert football handicappers performance in the NFL preseason over the last few years.

3. Benchmarks

During the NFL preasons its difficult to benchmark players against players or teams against teams on past performance matchups. Sure once the season kicks into full swing this type of KPI (key performance indicator) can be used in your strategy analysis, along with other football betting strategies (ex. key numbers), but during the preseason…well…its just not possible.

However a benchmark tip to watch for are how the coach is playing the starters. In the preseason, the coach may not play the starters the full game, or in the game at all. This makes it difficult to compare or benchmark the starter against the team or other players or past match ups. However, where there is value in looking for benchmarks is how the team plays its players during the quarters. Depending on the depth of quality players, you’ll find if a team has a good volume of quality players, the coach or game strategy will see them in the last 2 quarters of the game. If not, then its indicative the team may not have the best roster, or well rounded volume of players (ex. including 3rd and 4th string players) leading into the full season.

4. Coach Mentality

The coaches attitude or mentality can make a significant impression for the rest of the season. Remember, like many sports and match ups, team and game psychology players a large factor into the results.  So in the NFL preseason if the coach blows out the preseason with a strong strategy and strong players, his goal might be to set a tone, rhythm and expectation for the season, which can play into the psychology of the players, and the opposing team.

While other coaches may play more conservative, its a mind game strategy that has shown success in the short term of the regular season…and dilutes over time through the regular season as more teams get settled and synergy builds. Again this comes down to the coaches approach and strategy, so look to see what they’ve done in the past, as some coaches simply look at preseason as a practice, and nothing more.

5. Team Staff

With changes in coaching staff comes changes in strategy and psychology. These changes can be significant, or small, though the key indicator to watch for is if these staff changes result in a new strategy or approach.

Those teams that make these coaching staff adjustments, and you see strategy or approach changes, will likely execute these changes in the preseason to gauge how well it will perform. This coaching approach typically will then show that the coach won’t place much emphasis on the preseason game outcomes, and more on team and strategy improvement, resulting in losses or outmatched on the field versus teams who play strategy that works for them.

Got a NFL preseason tip or strategy to share? Comment below and be sure to share with others by clicking the Google +1 or Facebook Like or Tweet. Spread the Karma

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