Every year when NFL football season arrives, expert NFL handicappers, recreational sports bettors and sharps will begin to review their past NFL performance and prepare their prediction models in making their NFL picks for the season. They’re NFL prediction models will use various statistics and data points in an attempt to get an edge on predicting weekly NFL games and win their NFL picks.
Every nfl handicapper and sports bettor will use different formulas and look at different statistics in their nfl predictions. From the various odds offered by the online sportsbooks, to the bet types (ex. ATS) and the game performance of the favorites and underdogs, to player and team statistics. While there is no one perfect nfl prediction model, unless proven performance over time, the prediction model needs to win at specific percentage or greater, and diligent bankroll management.
There are methodologies to predicting future events that can be applied to almost anything, including sports, such as:
- An expert handicappers prediction who specializes as the handicapping professional sports. Note that they should have historical track record to validate their performance
- Similar to investment groups, a group or consensus of expert handicappers, where their collective nfl picks are graded and analyzed to determine a group nfl prediction.
- Mathematical and statistical prediction models. These essentially take similar statistical and data inputs, and provide a prediction. These prediction models will vary depending on what conditions and criteria it evaluates, and are often used by expert nfl handicappers in their nfl pick evaluation.
- Crowd consensus. The overall mass of numerous predictions and picks by the public or pool of expert handicappers, where the prediction from each individaul is pooled together to formulate the nfl consensus picks. Consider this the public opinion, but can also be applied to a crowd or group of expert handicappers, sports analysts, etc.
- Machine learning. This novel and complex approach to predicting nfl picks is a sought after method, whereby statistical data is analyzed by computer algorithms where the computer will learn from the inputs and the prediction outcomes, and automatically adjust using mathematical algorithms to learn the changes and apply the stronger variance. Again – a novel approach that is rarely used today in the sports prediction market due to its complex and high cost nature.
Whichever of these nfl prediction models are used, there are still a few specific NFL statistics expert football handicappers, tipsters, sports analysts and sports investors look at when determining their football picks, just as they do in baseball when looking at the key statistics in MLB when determining their mlb picks.
The best statistics to consider when handicapping football is to provide some four key units and stats to gain a winning edge. The help of these key units will help you recognize the influential indicators for your NFL picks.
Average Yards per Attempt
In NFL, the average yards per attempt provides useful insight into a team’s skill position players. Alternatively, average yards per passing attempt, and average yards per carry, help to understand quarterback and running back, respectively. With the help of these statistics, the handicapper or sports investor can easily peep into a team’s ability to sustain drives, quality of receivers and ability to hit holes. If you analyse these statistics even further, you will be able to know a team’s offensive abilities.
First half scoring trends
All the good nfl teams try to dominate the first half and score touchdowns to create the spread going into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters. This enables them to chew on the time in the second half while building the lead by pouring the pressure on the trailing team. In order to know the first half scoring trends, the expert nfl handicapper should analyze all the recent performances of the teams and historical match ups. Also when handicapping nfl or college football, watching the numbers and the online sportsbook odds can play into a big opportunities to take advantage of more profitable lines to place your NFL pick against.
Sacks and interceptions
You can find out about a team’s ability to intercept passes by calculating the number of interceptions against the total number of passing attempts by the opposition. This nfl stat is usually found on all the NFL website with the name Negative Pass Play Percentage. A team with high NPP percentage can easily disrupt opponent’s overall game plan and create a chaos in their offensive line. NFL handicappers almost always will audit this metrics on a weekly basis to find opportunities and advantages between the teams playing, and odds offered at the online sports books.
Turnover battles play a significant role in the success of a football game. A team that knows how to cushion the ball will usually have an upper hand in turnover battles. This means that a team with high turnover ratio will usually end up on the winning side of the scoreboard.
These football statistics are probably the most popular and effective nfl metrics an expert football handicapper and sports analyst will use in their prediction model to generate their weekly NFL picks, and has shown over time to become effective metrics to gauge the favorite versus the underdogs.
IntelligentBettingTips.com uses a combination of these nfl handicapping tips from the pool of expert nfl handicappers who supply their nfl picks, as well as used by various sources in the global nfl consensus. These nfl statistics are important metrics most professional handicappers and profitable sports bettors have shown to be most effective data points in their nfl prediction models, among other nfl statistics each handicapper and sports bettor will use to customize their prediction model that works best for them when taking an NFL bet or NFL teaser bet.
Do you have other nfl betting tips or popular football statistics you find work well in your prediction modelling? Share below and discuss with others.