betting against the squares

Handicapper strategy, betting against ‘squares’

betting against the squaresIf you’re new to sports investing or betting on sports, you’re going to hear a strategy approach used by some expert handicappers and experienced sports bettors called ‘betting against squares’. If you haven’t heard of this betting term yet, I suggest you also browse through other common, and some not-so-common, sports investing and betting terminology.

Betting against squares is a handicapping betting strategy where the investor or bettor, wagers against the public consensus or opinion. This is usually referred to as ‘squares’.

While this seems a rather simplistic strategy, there is an important strategic element to this method. While some expert handicappers may produce sports picks based on this method, which can produce some big wins during the season, the sports investors and handicappers who successfully apply the betting against squares strategy apply a methodical statistical analysis on the game match ups.

Betting against squares is a popular betting strategy in baseball, likely for the fact of the number of times a team will play the same team throughout the season. Statistical analysis on the historical matchups during the same season, and applying analysis of the online sportsbooks odds and social consensus, can produce some profitable opportunities.

A popular way to apply betting against squares used by an expert handicapper or experienced sports bettor when producing their MLB picks, is to assess the public consensus for a game and bet against it. Usually, this pays off on the underdogs. MLB baseball for example offers find plenty of examples throughout the seasons where the underdog won against the public consensus.

If you want to handicap using ‘squares’, an expert mlb handicapper or experienced sports investor will perform their statistical analysis to understand what is going on behind the match up. Industry expert nfl handicappers as Jim Feist, Don Best and Docs Sports are among a few handicappers known to apply their own form of statistical analysis to produce their NFL picks, as well as the pool of expert handicappers available in members area.

Oddsmakers are typically the ones with the most knowledge, unless of course you’re connected to a strong betting syndicate.  Online sportsbooks oddsmakrs perform good mathematical analysis on the team and player statistics, and will set and move their odds based on this information.

Oddsmakers try to build the game in a way there is even action on both sides so they can maximize their profit from the juice or vig.

However, this does not happen every time since the bookies also have vested interest in every game. They would do everything to get the take the edge on the public to make a healthy profit out of a game.

One method to successfully use ‘squares’ in a betting strategy is to spot games where 90% of the public supports a team, but the line does not move.

This indicates that the bookies know there is something else happening in the game that will influence the outcome. Although this is not a 100% sure way to win your bets and investments, you should still be aware of betting against squares strategy and apply it within your analysis for situations as this.

Sports investors can also take advantage of this betting strategy from situations where an over/under moves downward. The public consensus sees the movement and wager on the ‘over ‘, as they consider it a handy discount.

However experienced sports investors and bettors (ex. sharps and wise guys)  would bet the ‘under’. If you recap the entire situation and apply the statistics, you will notice that all the smart money goes ‘under’ in these situations.

And while you can safely bet squares in all such situations, its advised to not apply this strategy to your sports investing unless all the factor and statistics has been properly analyzed. This is one of a few benefits of using an experienced expert handicapper as they will recognized these opportunities when making their nfl picks or mlb picks.

Depending on the sport, the public opinion tends to make their emotional predictions or picks by betting on the favorite. This is not always the case, but in major events as the Super Bowl, World Series, World Cup, etc. the public consensus emotional predictions are a significant influence in this data. An analysis of this tends to show it favors the losing end of the picks due to constantly picking the favorites over time, and increases the line over the week leading up to the game, which attracts the bettors.

Key Strategy Tip

The most important factor in betting against the squares is to identify the opportunity and perform the statistical analysis as the foundation to apply this strategy. While historical data indicates on a high level favors the underdog in these situations, a deeper analysis of the social consensus opinion or collective intelligence, and their historical performance over time on the same sport and match up, does show additional insight into which way to wager.

As in the the sports prediction model, it applies multiple algorithms and data conditions from the social consensus performance, and combines it with the again, multiple data conditions from a pool of expert handicappers.

On a top level it may seem like a simple formula to just produce a sports prediction based on the public consensus selection and the expert handicappers picks, and if they two align, provide that as an Intelligent pick. However, that is not the case. does look at these types of scenarios, but the Intelligent tips uses various statistical analysis conditions from both sides; the social consensus picks and the pool of expert handicapper picks, and the top performing social and expert handicapper picks.

These multiple algorithms and conditions are run through a vast number of prediction scenarios, and over time, these algorithms produce multiple scenarios to understand which data points and algorithms perform best.

The intelligent tips prediction model doesn’t stop there. The intelligent tips algorithms and conditions are not static; meaning their not used to produce the same picks over and over throughout the season.  The intelligent tips constantly evolve and adapt in their analysis to learn over time the specific data sets that influence a games outcome. This is the intelligence behind the prediction model.

In another words, its a form of machine learning over time to constantly experiment, analyze and enhance the prediction outcome and make the most profit and yield over time.