Don't bet on the Superbowl

Don’t bet on the NFL Super bowl if….

If you’re wagering on the Super bowl this year with no sound strategy or minimal understanding how to increase your success to win your Super bowl bets…then save your money and don’t bet on the game as I’m sure there are thousands of better ways you could spend the money. Does this sound like you?

When Super Bowl weekend arrives, you can expect that there will be lots of opportunities to make a profit on the game if you understand what you’re doing…similar with wagering on the weekly NFL picks and selections throughout the regular season. Of course, many opportunities exist because the Super Bowl is one of the most gambled games of the year– people are willing to throw money away (gambling) on what appears to be, on paper, a 50/50 chance. Then why not just flip a coin and hold your breathe, or keep is low-key and play squares at your Superbowl party (Tip: Superbowl: Best strategies for playing squares).

We, being our sports investor members, are not those people (though we like a mean game of squares as the cherry $$ on top of our big Superbowl pay day). But for those who are not a sports investor member (join for free) and perhaps a recreational or social gambler, then here are three major ways to NOT to bet on the Super Bowl!

Don’t bet with the crowd

Betting with the crowd is a great way to lose your money. Bookmakers adjust their lines to give the house a slight advantage, so even when the numbers appear to be in your favor, it’s better to start looking for better number.

A good example is adjusting the spread. Most of the money seems to have moved in favour of the Atlanta Falcons beating the Patriots. Of course, this gets adjusted by moving towards the point spread (by how much they will win) to “sweeten” a bet. This is done by reducing or increasing a realistic spread to where it becomes unrealistic.

Crowds move with almost childlike expectation, so it’s easy to assume that a bet for the Patriots can be moved to a “blowout” for the Falcons and most people will bet on it anyway, bet over the spread, and lose.

Likewise, if the bookmakers expect a blowout, then the spread will shrink. Stupid money will then follow the books and lose. Money line betting is the easiest way to avoid this, even if the resulting gain is mitigated.

Similarly, many successful  sports investors don’t follow the NFL pundits aka analysts aka talking heads consensus. Inside sports bettors can get a one-stop-shop view of the top 100 NFL analysts and pundits weekly NFL predictions, and the collective consensus of all pundits. Now statistically its shown the advantage has been to fade the NFL pundits predictions, but interesting stats for this season is that its been to the sports bettor advantage to play the NFL pundits predictions for the NFL Wildcard Weekend and NFL Playoffs. How so? The NFL pundits nailed 9 of the 10 games straight up, hitting an astonishing 90% win rate going into the Super Bowl. At that win rate one might think its easy money to take the NFL pundits Super Bowl picks (which is 60% on Atlanta Falcons at time of publishing), but like many Super Bowl picks, its been advantages to fade the consensus (aka Patriots).

Against the spread however, at time of publishing the top 100 NFL analysts / pundits consensus has Patriots -3 @ 85%.

NFL Super Bowl pundits and analysts consensus for Super Bowl predictions and picks

Don’t guess

The worst way to bet in any sports event, let alone the Super Bowl, is to treat it like a coin flip. (If you want to do this, just bet on the coin flip.) There are a number of factors to look at during a game which will help determine the outcome.

If you aren’t doing this and see betting as a guessing game, reduce your bet to where you would realistically not care about losing money– because that’s what you’re doing. If you actually want to bet on a game, assume a winner, and at least perfunctorily work your way through the numbers if you don’t want to guarantee a loss. If you aren’t willing to go through that process twice, it’s probably better to just bet on things that are actually random.

Don’t bet with heart

Big games are filled with storylines, and people almost always pick the wrong ones when talking about who they are going to bet on. Storylines can color a game, but the most common psychological factors which would affect a player and change the outcome are almost never the ones the talking heads are mumbling about.

Why? They’re not players, and they are not mind-readers. Try to ignore the storylines, which are designed to tug your heartstrings one way or another. This Super Bowl, with talk of “passing the torch” to Cam Newton or Peyton Manning playing his last game (something he has refused to publicly confirm), is filled with them. Don’t listen.

Interested to see the latest Super Bowl predictions from our proprietary algorithms, pool of NFL handicappers, global public opinion, or the Super Bowl predictions from the top 100 NFL analysts across FOX Sports, NFL Network, Yahoo Sports, Bleacher Report, and over 100 others including their consensus, simply sign up or login to our free accounts at

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