MIT predicting economics & sports prediction system

Collective Prediction – Combining human and machine intelligence in prediction economies

MIT predicting economics & sports prediction systemBuilt on the idea of collective intelligence and behavioural economics that IntelligentBettingTips.com sports investing prediction model was founded, we’ve re-posted  below a research study call that applies a similar approach of human and machine to enhance the prediction outcome of economies…we just applied it to sports.

And while the study below addresses the collective intelligence of human and machine, I’ll note we’ve set forth to induce a 3rd variable to the prediction model – the experts. We use a) industry expert handicappers with 20-30 years experience, b) global people consensus data, and c) computer technology that makes use of algorithms in multiple regression, machine learning, and data mining.

While the MIT study is vague on its variables of ‘human’ and the algorithms or machine learning conditions applied to forecasting economies, its similar in the sense of its approach and applying currency and points to the benchmark the performance of its approach to attempt to prove the model can enhance the forecast of future events.

Just like in sports picks and prediction models no handicapper or system can get 100% of the prediction correct; that’s the goal. Any sports investor understands the approach is similar to stock market investing; the goal is to win over time at lessor risk than convention investment opportunities.

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ESPN writer covers new college football prediction model

ESPN’s coverage, a new system to bet ncaa college football

ESPN writer covers new college football prediction modelBack in August, Chad Millman, Editor in Chief of ESPN The Magazine wrote a popular article on a new system to bet college football stemming from a conversation with an MIT graduate at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Now this new system to bet ncaa college football is not system endorsed by ESPN, but what resonates strongly are two key points:

  1. The research and inspiration of the prediction model from the MIT graduate aligns with IntelligenBettingTips.com to prove sports is a sound “investment asset” within an investment portfolio, along with equities and other investment vehicles.
  2. The new ncaa football prediction model was produced from a graduate of MIT, where IntelligentBettingTips.com sports prediction model was inspired from scholar research at the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, and Harvard.

Chad sat on the panel about the world of sports betting today, and wrote about a discussion he had with an MBA graduate of MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) by the name of Mike Wohl.

The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference tends to attract a variety of members who are hard-core gambling fans, sports investors and sharps – along with a few other MIT graduates who probably have the next best prediction system for betting on sports. Why attend? It’s a place where the brainiac statisticians, sports fanatics, and computer engineers (likely from MIT) come together who have a focus in sports, and lead the evolution in sports prediction modelling and sports betting.

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expert nfl handicappers

Why 90% of sports betting systems don’t work

I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks.

The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away free picks. The unfortunate, and fortunate case of the sports betting and handicapper industry is that the 80/20 business school rule applies.

The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL bettors lose.

Even so the general line of thinking with the avid sports bettor, investor and sharp, “why would someone sell their winning picks when they could bet on the picks themselves”. It’s a valid comment and applies to most betting systems touted in the market.

But then there is the other 20%, and in the handicapper market our teams years of experience has taught us this more 10%. That is 10% of sports betting systems can work, with a caveat attached. And when the services are used as their recommended, it separates the difference between the sports gambler and sports investor.

Just as in investing in stocks on NASDAQ or Dow, its still a gamble or bet if no advantageous information is received before the stock moves. And even being on the inside, their can be still risk, which a prudent bankroll or money management and strategy (or betting) strategy must be applied.

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Won Teasers

Wong teasers betting strategy

Won TeasersWong teasers. Yes – you read it correctly. Wong teasers. If you’ve been investing in sports for a few years, or a recreational sports bettor, then at some point in time you’ve likely heard the chatter about won teasers.  Wong teasers are another form of teaser investments or bets where the spread moves through the most important key numbers. What are those key numbers? Well lets take two steps back first to understand key numbers in sports betting and what key numbers your expert handicapper or professional sports investor uses in their NFL sport pick results.

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betting against the squares

Handicapper strategy, betting against ‘squares’

betting against the squaresIf you’re new to sports investing or betting on sports, you’re going to hear a strategy approach used by some expert handicappers and experienced sports bettors called ‘betting against squares’. If you haven’t heard of this betting term yet, I suggest you also browse through other common, and some not-so-common, sports investing and betting terminology.

Betting against squares is a handicapping betting strategy where the investor or bettor, wagers against the public consensus or opinion. This is usually referred to as ‘squares’.

While this seems a rather simplistic strategy, there is an important strategic element to this method. While some expert handicappers may produce sports picks based on this method, which can produce some big wins during the season, the sports investors and handicappers who successfully apply the betting against squares strategy apply a methodical statistical analysis on the game match ups.

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Sports investing and bankroll management

10% of sports bettors follow these bankroll management tips

Investors across the board, whether your an investor in market equities, or sports investor specific sports, both have common fundamental investment philosophies that apply.

Some of the most important factors and best tips to becoming a profitable investor  include:

  • Don’t let emotions dictate investment decisions.
  • Fundamental data analysis and research will show you the value who to invest in, and who to avoid, and at the very lease, give you an edge.
  • A lot of information is intangible and cannot be measured (ex. teams motivation and drive on game day). The quantifiable aspects of a company or team, such as profits and wins are easy enough to find and quantify, but always work into your formula considerations on qualitative factors, such as new coach, new quarterback, weather conditions, team emotions on game day, etc.  Use a combination of tangible and intangible aspects when making your investment picks.
  • Money management or bankroll management

The latter, bankroll management, is one of the most common areas sports bettors and punters ignore, yet its one of the most integral sports investing areas that makes the difference between a bettor and a profitable sports investors.

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online sports betting strategy and reverse betting

What are reverse bets in online sports betting?

online sports betting strategy and reverse bettingReverse bets can be confusing for many novice bettors. Some even think that reverse bets do not exist anymore. However, the reality is reverse bets are very much a part of sports betting world, and once you understand them, they make a lot of sense and may begin applying reverse betting to your sports betting strategies. Expert handicappers and seasoned sports investors will use reverse bets sparingly when they see strong opportunities at the books and the team match ups.

What is a reverse bet? A reverse bet is combination of two ‘if’ bets. Now if you don’t know about an ‘if’ bet, you will find the concept of reverse bet extremely confusing. Therefore, you should start by understanding ‘if’ bet and then you will easily learn how reverse betting works.

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NHL Grand Salami Betting

What is NHL grand salami betting ?

NHL Grand Salami BettingNHL betting has been a growing investment area among North Americans over the past few years. We’ll get into the obvious reasons why, but as with all sports the investor understands there is never a preference for one particular sport when it comes to investing in sports. The investor understands money can be made over time in any sport, as long as the opportunities can be found.

For those sports bettors evolving into investors or you’re simply new to betting on NHL hockey or use handicappers NHL picks, you’ll come across the terminology of ‘NHL grand salami’.

Now with most newbie sports investors or sports gamblers that chase the thrill of a few dollars, often fail or underestimate the importance of the grand salami wager in the NHL.  The grand salami bet can be a good investment opportunity when it presents itself, and is taken advantage of by most experienced sports investors and expert NHL handicappers.

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MLB run lines betting tips

Handicapping baseball? Betting on MLB runlinesMLB baseball offers baseball bettors and expert handicappers more opportunities to wager on their MLB picks than any other sports as NFL or NBA due to is long season. This creates good investment opportunities for the avid sports bettor and expert handicappers as there are more options to find great value in MLB odds, as well as big trends in the statistics such as hot streaks.

The run line is not as common in MLB betting as the other betting opportunities, but for those who use it will try to get an extra run or lay off an extra run depending on the game situations. Expert MLB handicappers will look for this in their recommended baseball betting strategies, however more often than not alternate run lines are still preferred by most people betting on MLB and still prefer using only +1.5 and -1.5 run lines.

Never heard of MLB run line betting? Lets do a quick run through. MLB run line betting is populate among online sports bettors as they find it can be a lucrative and entertaining baseball betting strategy. To best understand why MLB run lines can create good investing opportunities you first need to understand the basics behind it. MLB run line betting is simply about selecting a team and predicting their performance. Read more

how to bet on soccer by football tipster and expert soccer hanidcappers

How football tipsters and expert handicappers bet on soccer

how to bet on soccer by football tipster and expert soccer hanidcappersEuropean and international football, or popularized as soccer in North America, is well known as the most popular sport in the world. Why else would it be considered ‘the beautiful game’. Watching soccer brings an excitement all on its own, especially the FIFA World Cup and other major leagues as the Champions league, Europa league, CONCAFA and more.

As popular as football, or soccer, is throughout the world, it fails to bring the kind of hype in North America as the NFL, NBA and College sports. Why?

Is it the betting attraction, the media or America just trying to differentiate itself from its European counterparts? Even though expert handicappers and mainstream sports bettors invest heavily on playing NFL picks every season, the lack of exposure of soccer lines has likely contributed to the lower interest in attracting North American betting on seasonal and major soccer games.

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