Do you bet or invest on the UEFA, Europa, Liga or any other European or international soccer leagues? Whether you’re making your own soccer picks and predictions, or purchasing soccer or football tips from an established soccer tipster, you’ll find the most popular and common soccer better market is the 1×2, where sports investors and bettors will bet on the soccer match outcome.
There are of course more sophisticated markets and strategies to apply to your soccer investing and betting, such as arbitrage betting. So soccer betting strategy you apply at your favorite sportsbook, the luxury of what strategy you apply is in the wide range of markets for the massive selection of leagues the bookmaker will cover.
One such market for soccer betting is looking at Exchange markets. Exchange betting is relatively only available now thanks to the availability of technology to capture and delivery the odds data from various sportsbooks within nanoseconds.
What is Exchange Betting?
Exchange betting can be a great strategy tool for your sports investing portfolio by allowing bettors, investors, traders and the alike to take advantage of different odds available at difference sportsbooks in order to play both sides with a guarantee to profit.
It is by no means high-margin profitability, but it is a guaranteed profit. And obviously over time, the sports investor will make a much larger bankroll from smaller incremental guaranteed wins. Exchange betting especially for soccer betting is a huge growth area taking over the online betting landscape.
Due to the development of more intelligent and complex ways to bet on soccer, and the wide array of soccer offerings at the sportsbook, as blazed a path for more sports investors to earn more in the sports investment portfolio, than most traditional investment vehicles.
So in this post, I’ll cover 5 advanced soccer betting tips to share and consider.
Tip 1: Invest or Bet on Value
How do you bet a soccer match on value? It’s fairly straight forward:
- Predict the winning chance of a side.
- You can make your own predictions, or use IntelligentBettingTips.com soccer tipster services to get both the expert soccer handicapper predictions, and the global consensus or public soccer predictions. Albeit a strategy to apply to public soccer predictions is to fade the public, with our services you’ll see both those public soccer predictions that have built up high predicable confidence, and those soccer games where fading the public is a given.
- I recommend get the decimal vs. fraction price on the bet. The math is easier for the sports bet.
- Multiply the percentage chance of a win against the odds
Any result you produce on trying to determine value on your soccer pick, if you get 1.00 or greater means you have value!!
Tip 2: Important: Calculate your Bets’ Winning Probability
Make sure you do your homework, because sometimes you’ll see the odds being offered first and a lot of soccer bettors jump right into their bet. Always remember this tip when betting on soccer using the arbitrage strategy, DO NOT throw down your wager until you’ve done your work and checked the statistics and made sure that you can statistically achieve the winning chance.
How do you calculate the winning chance of a soccer team? It’s not easy, and you will have to apply your own approach, but take consideration the following suggestions:
Home & Away Form
In handicapping soccer its understood that an estimate of half of all soccer games end in home wins, another quarter of all games end in draws, and the remainder of games are wins away from home. Ok – most handicappers and experienced sports bettors will tell you this is the case across almost all professional leagues.
Playing soccer on home advantage is real.
A common method of predicting is to consider the previous match outcome during the current season – and optionally the last season too – in order to estimate chances of a result. Again – you could also consider subscribing to a soccer or sports handicapping service as IntelligentBettingTips.com to get access to both a pool of expert soccer handicappers and tipsters, and the public consensus on soccer matches.
By cross tabulating the “home form” of the hosts with the “away form” of the visiting team we can calculate a rough guide to the game.
I know its not that easy to calculate this, and if it were that simple to pick results then the sportsbooks would be bankrupt. There is now software and some rare services the investor or bettor can subscribe to quickly get these results, however not everyone is privy to these and must calculate this manually.
What else can affect the win probability?
This too is a popular approach, so consider looking at the short season vs. long season to get a gauge. The premises behind this is the confidence momentum and injury recoveries, but this is not always the case as high confidence can easily turn and the books will side to balance both sides the public betting market plays more of their bankroll on their favorite ‘hot team’.
But similar to the recent article 6 tips to betting ATS on the NBA playoffs, a similar advantage can be found on betting against the win streaks.
Goalies and central defense players are also key indicators to watch. Are they injured or playing or how has their recent performance been, even against the same team?
Lets not forget the rivalries. Heck, I love watching them, but they are the most hair-pulling factor to complicate this strategy. Both sides are hungry and in high alert, and the fans adrenaline can be the fuel to one teams fire when played on the home pitch.
In the end, home advantage has it when I involve this into my soccer betting strategy. Its a strong indicator to influence the outcome and determine my decision on the value of my soccer picks. Its the un-quantifiable psychological factor of the home team that can give the edge.
Recency & Frequency
As in most business intelligence models, the RFM model is another key indicator that looks at the recency and frequency of the teams performance.
Just as strategic your decisions can be, the teams recent performance after key match ups,events and cups, or on-the-road trips can play into their next home performance. Have a peak at the teams statistics on this to see how their recent performance around similar events have performed.
Tip 3: How Then Do You Calculate Value ?
Three methods I suggest to sports investors.
- Use a spreadsheet to track these. Yes its difficult and you can’t cover it all, but use it as a general guide.
- Consider a good arbitrage software or service. I don’t have any specific recommendations today, however we do have 3 under our review which we may announce soon.
- Audit your betting history. Are the sides that you are predicting to win 80% of the time actually winning 80%? Are you always losing on away teams or long shot bets? Your personal betting history will show you where to improve.
Overall these 3 advanced soccer betting tips should provide a guide for the sports investor to build a method that will achieve an average +/- 8% return over time. While this may seem conservative, building a healthy bankroll comes over time with smart decisions.
lastly, I cannot stress enough to the sports bettor and investor to follow this best practice, but the sure way to build your bankroll to extremely healthy levels starting today, is get familiar and apply betting money management practices. Most bettors and punters ignore this…and I’ll never understand why, but if you survey the most successful sports investors, bettors and punters around, you’ll find one thing in common – good bankroll management techniques.