While I love some hot streaks in sports, those losing streaks can play to the favor of your bankroll. I’ll cover 6 tips to consider when betting on basketball against the spread (ATS), and where both hot streaks and losing streaks can work for your sport investing strategy.
Now your sports investing or betting strategy most likely contains a variety of bet types, there are two ways to bet the sides of the game; the money line and against the spread (ATS). And while there will always be teams on hot and losing streaks, those sports bettors who bet or invest throughout the basketball season and use our nba picks, both NBA and college basketball, will find these hot streaks seem to last longer than most other sports.
Now if you’re new using a sports betting system to bet against the spread (ATS), or you haven’t played ATS in your sports investment strategy (see our infographic guide to sports investing), lets run through the basics real quick to catch you up to speed:
Against the Spread (ATS)
To bet or invest against the spread is to make a sports book wager that will be decided by adding points to one team or the other after the game is played. Most commonly known as ATS is one of two of the more popular ways to bet sides of the game.
For example, if Calvin bet against the spread that the San Francisco 49’ers (-7) would beat the Miami Dolphins. That means the 49’ers would have to win by more than 7 points for Calvin to win his bet. Ok – I know its still only May, but I’ve been deep-diving into NFL statistics all day today. But back to the NBA…
As I said, most sports bettors and investors will find the NBA has more hot or cold winning streaks than most other sports. Let’s have a quick look at why, and how to adjust this in your ATS betting strategy.
Note: If you’re researching nba betting strategy and/or nba picks, take a quick look at the current track record of the NBA handicappers sports picks across the NBA and NCAA basketball season.
Tip 1: Looking for Hot Streaks – Look @ the NBA
The NBA is all to common to double digit win streaks, and the frequency of this happening is far to common than you’d think when you compare the number of games played.
Think about it – NFL, MLB, NHL, sure they all get there win streaks, but statistically speaking the frequency of occurrence is much less common vs. basketball.
One of the reasons handicappers take advantage of this in their betting strategy is that the good handicappers and tipsters know that basketball altogether have fewer players who contribute in the NBA than in other sports.
A hot win streak needs all the players sharing confidence in each other operating in synergy at the same time. Its that collective natural essence you’ll find on court or field if you’ve played any major North American sport. When you have a dozen players who all operate together the majority of the time vs most other sports where players play far less the time together on the field, ice or pitch or diamond, you’ll get less synergy between one another.
And then there you have basketball, a dozen players, 5 starters, all playing together the majority of the time in the match who collectively get a strong feel for the match (keep in mind the tips on betting on college basketball rematches) and an inner built-up confidence that rides them through win-after-win to build on those common win streaks.
Tip 2: Betting Win Streaks is Not Profitable
Like any intelligent sports investor, an understanding of ‘profits over time’ should become their mantra. And unlike the common recreational sports bettor or local fan, history and statistics will show betting long on the win streaks is not a win-win situation.
Any of the most well known handicappers in the industry today – Jim Feist, Maddox Sports, Docs Sports, Who2beton handicappers, Don Best, and expert handicappers at IntelligentBettingTips.com, will tell you betting against the spread (ATS) on basketball teams that ride a winning streak of three games or more does not tend to be profitable over the long term. Remember…’long term’…and the longer the streak the worse the probability is get against you.
Then again, applying what I do to many things in life as ‘is it logical’, it’s common sense in the betting markets that the longer a streak gets the more the betting public will pay attention, AND get lured in to bet on the winning team. And this is where basketball handicappers and tipsters will typically recommend to fade the public.
And with all things of cause-and-effect, the more public attention placing action on the teams with the hot streak, the effect it will cause the sportsbook oddsmakers to adjust the lines to accommodate the extra action, resulting in making it harder for the team to cover spreads.
Tip 3: Win Streaks can be Weak if They are Not Covered
Winning streaks aren’t nearly as powerful if they aren’t covering spreads at same time – When any NBA team pulls together a couple wins, the probability is very good that they will be favored in the sports books – and more than likely by a decent margin.
Sure it’s doable that a team can pull off a win streak and no cover the spread in all their games, which can be a sign the win streak is not a result of brute force.
We tend to see handicappers catch interest in games that cover the spread in 4 consecutive games. This is because those basketball teams that covered 3 consecutive games fail the majority of the time to cover the fourth.
But if the cappers catch a team covering the fourth game, its a good indication the team is playing strong and worthy of a closer look moving forward.
Tip 4: Streaks Leave a Skid Mark
While there is a 50% change you’re checking your shorts on this one, what I’m referring to is the end of a winning streak can turn into a skid, or a belief they can do it all.
Confidence is like a sheet of ice and can be easily broken for NBA teams on a win streak, and when the tides turn and the break the streak, like most women in a relationship they question everything that went wrong (vs. what went right).
You might say it’s an ego, and one only needs to turn on ESPN when the interviews hit the rookie players outside the court – you can hear in the subtle smack talk of their invincibility.
Once a winning streak comes crashing down, play your nba predictions like a game of poker. Watch the ‘turn’, or the next game or two. See if they can maintain their composure, or their mindset is broken. On the ‘turn’, if you see they’re getting their mojo back and had an off game that broke their streak, let the ‘river’ or the next few games validate your play. An expert handicapper should play their basketball predictions cautiously during this time, as statistics during this period can skew the current performance. Again – profits over time, and play your strategy accordingly through special events as winning streaks.
Tip 5: Even Losers Can be Hot
Like high school where the unpopular girl turns out on the cover of Maxim…or simply plain ‘dammmmm’, as too with losing streaks in the nba. Don’t undervalue these streaks, as its human nature to dog the teams that can’t perform week after week.
But from a sport bettor or investor view points, you should see the opportunity in the darkest hours. See, the betting public gets turned off by losing streaks, and those teams can often provide real value. And the longer a winning streak extends, the more value the sports book lines will be, because the public is going to have a growing grudge to bet on the losing teams.
While that can mean an extra point or two on the spreads – always a good thing – the real value in these situations is often in the moneyline because the public tends to think that at team that has been losing, will keep on losing. The effect of this is the moneyline prices on the underdog just gets juicer as the streak continues. So when a streak ends the bettors who back the team on the moneyline will reap the rewards.
Tip 6: Like the Long Legs
By long legs I mean long losing streaks, which are f.a.b.u.l.o.u.s for ATS. Handicappers and tipsters alike, will catch these and offer basketball predictions that can pay off handsomely. For the sports bettor or investor, the losing streak should make you salivate when the legs keep on growing (errr…when the losing streak gets longer and longer).
Statistically speaking, since the early 2000 NBA season, basketball teams who lost 6 or more games on a streak covered the spread at just over half the time. Not a bad profitable win rate when you consider there were more than six hundred games during that period.
Now we get a lot of great tips and feedback from members, so if you have any betting strategies or tips you’re applying to the NBA playoffs, or through the season, comment below to share or drop us a line to chat.