If you’ve invested or bet on MLB over the years on both the regular baseball season and playoffs, you’ve likely seen how the MLB playoffs are a much different beast than the regular season, and how an adjustment to your betting strategy and MLB playoff picks is required to adjust for the change in temperament.
1. Regular Season Track Record
Check the history and you’ll find the importance of how team health and their momentum have played well into the playoff series. For example, in the last decade, teams with the better record have had the advantage in the World Series.
MLB handicappers understand this in their baseball predictions, and the online sportsbooks take this into account in their lines. If you look at the last 10 World Series, the baseball teams with the better record have gone 50%. Unfortunately the public and average MLB bettor neglect this, but is a key performance indicator the Sharps and MLB investors pick up on quickly.
So why then haven’t the bettor teams taken the series? If one team is strong enough to edge their opponent 55% of the time in the regular season, the underdog will win a seven game series 40% of the time.
But if the favorite can edge out its opponent, then on average 66% of the times they play each other the underdog will still win a 7-game series in about one of every 5 match-ups.
In the 66% or 2 of 3 probability, the sports bettor will need to play the playoffs series at a minimum of 23 games to determine the winner; which is considered a statistical significance. Confused? To simplify it for your MLB picks, it means the weaker team or underdog would take the World Series 5% of the time…or less.
So if your making your mlb predictions or handicapping your mlb playoff picks, the key point is to be cautious to not put to much weight on a team with a strong regular season record. The edge for the sports investor is to consider the play on the hot team in the recent weeks.
2. Managing the Team Roster
Throughout the regular season, we see teams and management groom and apply team maintenance. You see managers give players time off, top pitchers get relief, and game strategy approach that seems more conervative. Why? Coaches and managers understand the long 6-month road ahead in the regular season, so the name of the game is preservation through the season, even though the leading teams will win around 60-65% of their regular season games.
Then comes the playoffs. Coaches and managers will change their approach to the roster and strategy as they understand the weight and impact of winning key games during the playoffs.
When you have players making errors in regular season, they may get their chance of redemption during the season, but come MLB playoffs, coaches will unlikely give foregiveness. Even so, management will run through the roaster more frequently and make adjustments to enhance each situation to give the edge.
The baseball bettor playing their predictions on each game in a series needs to adjust for this accordingly when playing their picks. An understanding how management adjusts their strategy against key teams they played in the regular season, and which players give the edge, should be taken into account when betting MLB at the sportsbooks.
With this change in strategy during MLB playoffs, who should get the edge?
- Teams with history and depth are more likely to have the fit to adjust for key situations that get produced out of a long series.
- Sounds odd, but watch the teams health. When a key player is hurt and misses the playoffs, especially when the series is matched against a key team where the player has historically made a significant influence, can be a key indicator on where to adjust your betting approach.
- Don’t fall into the trap of the more well-rested teams get the edge. There are plenty of examples where teams who come off a hot streak, continue the momentum going into their next series.
3. Home Field Advantage?
Some of the best baseball handicappers and Sharps look at the historical track record of the home team. For example, the home team held a 1308-1122 advantage in MLB games during the 2013 season. That’s a 53.8% edge to win.
Then there are Divisional winners who went 313-173 (a 64.4% win rate), versus a 257-229 record on the road (52.8%), indicating why hosting an additional game at home in a best-of-five or best-of-seven playoff series can be critical.
However knowing the baseball teams that have a strong home advantage can be key to a single-game wager; though run your numbers or follow a MLB handicapper who looks at the home advantage in their MLB betting system.
I’ll admit, its not easy. There is a lot to consider during the MLB playoffs when making your MLB picks, but a key take away is whatever baseball betting system, MLB handicapper or betting strategy you apply, know that your approach to betting the MLB playoffs needs an adjustment over your regular season approach.
And throughout the playoffs and the World Series, there is a ton more information to consider. You can try to figure it out yourself – which is entertaining on its own as it helps you model and try different approaches and betting systems, or you can invest into an expert MLB handicapper who’s focus is baseball, and holds a strong track record throughout the playoffs and World Series.
Handicappers who are making the winning MLB picks throughout the series, will have made adjustments to their betting systems and strategies; after all it’s their 8 hours a day, 5 days a week profession.
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