MLB run lines betting tips

Handicapping baseball? Betting on MLB runlinesMLB baseball offers baseball bettors and expert handicappers more opportunities to wager on their MLB picks than any other sports as NFL or NBA due to is long season. This creates good investment opportunities for the avid sports bettor and expert handicappers as there are more options to find great value in MLB odds, as well as big trends in the statistics such as hot streaks.

The run line is not as common in MLB betting as the other betting opportunities, but for those who use it will try to get an extra run or lay off an extra run depending on the game situations. Expert MLB handicappers will look for this in their recommended baseball betting strategies, however more often than not alternate run lines are still preferred by most people betting on MLB and still prefer using only +1.5 and -1.5 run lines.

Never heard of MLB run line betting? Lets do a quick run through. MLB run line betting is populate among online sports bettors as they find it can be a lucrative and entertaining baseball betting strategy. To best understand why MLB run lines can create good investing opportunities you first need to understand the basics behind it. MLB run line betting is simply about selecting a team and predicting their performance.

An baseball handicapper or experienced sports bettor understand the statistics behind run lines. MLB run line bets involve how many runs your team or baseball pick will earn relative to the opposing team. Its somewhat similar to betting on NFL spreads, and is widely common and preferred.

The favored team will have to win by 2 or more runs for a run line bet on that team to payout, while the underdog will have to either win the game outright or lose by 1 run.

The amount of runs that the favorite must win by can be larger if the skill level of the teams varies greatly, but the typical spread is (1.5).  The odds associated with each outcome will also vary and the payouts will be different. But remember, shop around at different online sportsbook to find the best odds and take advantage of any pubic betting that is swaying one side.

Lets look at a quick example of MLB run line betting

Game: Yankees and Orioles.

This match up will be listed as follows:

  • New York Yankees  (-1.5) +165
  • LA Dodgers (+1.5) -190

The Yankees are the favorites to win the baseball game, which is why they have the (-1.5) in the run line betting odds.

The Yankees are not big favorites though and their odds to win by 2 or more runs is +165, which means a $100 bet on the NY Yankees  run line would payout $265.  On the other hand, a run line bet on the LA Dodgers would payout about $153 for a $100 bet, but this bet pays out if the LA Dodgers either win or lose by 1 run.

Another way to look at this is if you take the final score of this game and add 1.5 to the underdog’s run count (or subtract 1.5 from the favorite’s), make this the new final score, and reevaluate, who won the game?

So if the New York Yankees scored 3 runs and the LA Dodgers scored 2. So recalculate the Yankees Score: 3-1.5= 1.5. The LA Dodgers scored 2, which means they win the bet by a theoretical .5.

Important Stats

Professional MLB handicappers and sharps will analyze the the results from past five years. Statistically speaking, it tends to show that around 28% of baseball games have finished at a gap of a run. Surprisingly, this number has remained almost the same over each MLB season, and only showing subtle variation between 27% and 29% during the years. Cappers and sharps understand this and will validate this against other performance indicators, such as if a game is tied after nine innings, only 7% of the games the home team covers the -1.5 line.

-1.5 Value Runline

Handicapping MLB baseball can be a challenge without the right statistical analysis tools, thus the reason why many MLB bettors will subscribe to top performing MLB handicappers and tipster services who buy into these tools to apply to their baseball prediction models. A common pattern some expert handicappers have found that influence their MLB picks is identifying similar pitching patterns of between pitchers. Some handicappers in baseball will consider this as half the work done. But the right application of statistical analysis over trends and patterns, more MLB picks and predictions will become present.

However, not all the baseball pitchers are easy to read and their statistics will fluctuate enough to throw off any patterns or trends. Because of this, some mlb handicappers advise to not to rely to heavily on these pitchers for -1.5 lines because they hardly have close games with big innings. The -1.5 line works best against pitchers that tend to give up their innings before it gets big enough to elude the blowout victories.

Value of +1.5 Runline

If your still figuring out your MLB picks for the nights game and no trends or patterns arise in your analysis, some sharps will default to bet on +1.5 runline. However, you may have to wait for the public consensus to pour money on their favorite teams, otherwise known as ‘public’ teams. Why? Because the +1.5 runline usually becomes solid as the amateur bettors play on the -1.5 line. However, you will have to wait till first pitch draws to get to this situation with the +1.5 runline.

Runline Value Traps

Moneyline and posted total for a baseball game, play the most important role when oddsmakers set the runline. This situation makes many recreational bettors think that they can benefit from low total by simple grabbing the +1.5 runline. However, they fail to understand the importance of total to the runline. The oddsmakers will also adjust the runline to allow for -1.5 in many cases.

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