The profitable sports investor or bettor understands the advantages necessary to increase their odds on a successful win. Its the knowledge of getting the inside tip or information that gives the advantage, and the understanding how to exploit it. Hell, sportsbooks offering odds on the NBA playoffs look for just that, and of the obvious balance of where the money placed on teams.
Whether you’re a sports investor with NBA included in your betting portfolio, or an avid basketball bettor betting on the NBA playoffs, its no different to identify the subtle differences between a match up to take advantage.
In the NBA playoffs an expert basketball handicapper or analyst researching their NBA playoff picks will look for those subtle differences between the first and second rounds of playoffs. On the surface it may seem the teams are fluid in their 1st and 2nd round performance, but as seasoned investors know both rounds can be quite different.
When betting on both rounds of the NBA playoffs, take consideration of these 5 betting tips:
1. Less Games, More Public Volume
In most playoff rounds, NFL playoffs, NHL, FIFA, etc., there is no difference with the NBA playoffs. In each round the publics attention grows with less games to spread the bankroll around at the sportsbooks. So you can easily see that with the less games and increase in flow of cash on the playoffs, there is more betting volume between the first and second rounds.
The greater the betting volume, the more public opinion will influence the sportsbooks line movements and odds. The public opinion or consensus is a key indicator the bettor or investor needs to be aware as the adverse impact is the line movements to maximize the profit on the public.
However one statistical advantage avid bettors consider is the betting strategy of fading the public, or betting against the favorite, as this sentiment alone can skew the prediction forecast of the publics favorite basketball team. Sports investors at IntelligentBettingTips.com use the global consensus data to either fade the public, or use the statistical driven performance results that show which sports or teams the public opinion has the advantage.
Between each round of NBA playoffs, if you’re making your playoff predictions or shopping the lines for the advantage, keep in mind the less games getting played also means the sharper the oddsmakers will be on their lines. Those sportsbettors applying arbitrage betting (ARBS), will also find less options to take advantage on their NBA picks due to this.
2. Season & Historical Performance
If you’re seeking the advice of an expert handicapper for your NBA playoff picks, be sure to know understand their NBA prediction performance through the regular season and first round. There are those handicappers who try to extend their business cycle through the year coming off their NFL pick services and apply the similar sport picking strategy to basketball. The majority of handicappers that attempt to play the entire year of sports tend to be a losing bet for sports bettors. Find those handicappers who specialize in just one major sport as NBA, or even two. Just as you equity investors in the markets go with the advice of advisors in specific sectors as technology, resources or bio-tech, so should you when evaluating the handicapper or sports investment service for your NBA playoff picks.
Similar to the start of any sports season, handicappers and expert sport analysts can easily miss the mark – for obvious reasons. As we advise anyone seeking NFL picks or NBA picks, take caution on the preseason as the teams, coaches and strategies are getting played out, tested and of course, the full squad isn’t necessarily in full force.
Similar to the playoffs, watching how the first few games of round one is played, handicappers will base their playoff predictions from the regular season and past matchups. Its a fair criteria to base their statistical analysis from, and can work well, but as the other tips in this article when betting on the NBA playoffs, the sports bettor should take into consideration this, and the handicappers basketball predictions performance over the season.
3. Confidence Roller Coaster
In the sportsbetting forums you find a lot of banter around the nerves of players come playoffs. And while there is some truth on how players nerves can impact their performance come first round of the playoffs, the nervousness factor becomes less of an issue.
When handicappers and the public begin making their nba playoff predictions, they tend to look for how aggressive teams play as the stakes are high the first rounds. You get first time teams making the playoffs, teams who failed in the previous years playoffs looking for redemption, and the NBA champions all gunning for the big win. All of these teams get some level of nervousness as not to fail miserable or make major mistakes and get eliminated first round.
Those predictions that were fulfilled and made it to the second round though, the boost of confidence and milestone achieved seems to fade as they tip off the start to the 2nd round of playoffs. Handicappers and analysts pick up on this in their basketball predictions are will at times use this key performance indicator to influence their playoff picks.
Betting on the NBA playoffs, the player nerves can have a significant negative impact on a team can be taken advantage of or exploited in the first round. Though remember, come second round this typically isn’t the case.
By the time playoffs roll around, most teams have hit their peak with injuries from the regular season. All in all, through the regular basketball season the teams have played around 80 to 90 games, including preseason.
Now with the high intensity of the first round of playoffs, you can be assured those injuries will have been escalated. Second round comes and the teams that came into the playoffs with injury concerns are going to be in especially rough shape by the time that the second round rolls around.
Coaches and trainers will say the adrenaline and training could keep the players running at top performance, but its highly unlikely unless its a serious injury or part of the coaching strategy to bench the player. Though you can bet you’ll see most injured players on the court walking it off.
But most importantly, as an investor betting on the NBA playoffs you need to be even more aware of the teams and specific players health as the playoffs progress. The better you can spot and accurately assess the impact of the players or team injuries the better off you will be.
5. Less Mismatches
NBA playoff mismatches really don’t exist to the same extent as regular season. In the first round the difference between the first and eighth placed team in a division or the second and seventh can be huge. When analyzing performance for your nba pick, it doesn’t take much to see there can be significant performance and match difference between a very good team and a very average one.
In the basketball playoffs, its not uncommon in the first round to find mismatches, and surprisingly upsets in these mismatch situations are not as common as you would find in most other sports playoffs.
However in the second round of playoffs, on average you’ll find the four worst teams in each conference will have exited the stadium, and the remaining have a higher probability to advancing to the next round of playoffs.
Think of this seasons NBA playoffs. Already this scenario has happened in the Western conference. And if you look at some of the major analysts on ESPN, and top handicappers we cover, you’ll find a similar trend of basketball picks in their predictions for the playoffs.
Albeit, I’m saying you’ll see the strongest teams advance to the next round, but always keep an eye (and ear) out for those mismatches, as its very possible you may be underestimating one of the teams.