With Super bowl XLVII approaching, the betting public will get ready to check the latest Super bowl futures and NFL odds, and debate their Super bowl predictions and picks. Before placing your friendly wager with friends or at one of the best betting sites online, consider a few sports betting tips from expert football handicappers on how to place your Super bowl pick.
Most expert NFL handicappers and analysts will all tell you similar advice: The sports betting market, much like the financial and equity markets, are extremely efficient.
“It’s a lot more fun to bet on football than on Wal-Mart,” admits Steven Levitt, a distinguished economics professor at the University of Chicago and author of “How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League,” published in The Economic Journal. For the entertainment, sports bettors are willing to lose a little on average, he explains.
Though Jim Mahar, assistant professor of finance at St. Bonaventure University and co-author of Using Football to Teach Finance, warns that efficiency does not imply perfection. Exceptions do indeed exist–and thus, so do opportunities to profit.
So betting on Super bowl 47, its unlikely the recreational sports bettor will break the bankroll, but can find some profit to be made.
Tip 1: Look at the entire season
A similar approach expert football handicappers and analysts perform, they’ll run a few statistical queries and analysis on the season. They’ll look at everything from wins and losses, team match ups, coaches, starting players, weather conditions, etc.
Unfortunately the average NFL gambler places to much emphasis on the teams recent performance, or their own prediction record.
A study published in The Journal of Finance entitled ‘Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports BEtting Market,” an associate professor (Evan Osborne) of economics at Write State University wrote the NFL bettor should look at a team’s entire football season, versus what the public or ESPN suggests which team is hot…or not…over the NFL playoffs or past week.
Now in the financial markets, most of us rarely find the time to do the historical performance of a companies performance. The average investor will clammer onto the most recent news published in the newspaper or online at Yahoo Finance. By the time the news hits the public, its already to late to make a decent profit…and if anything, end up watching the stock drop from the public hype. But yet those investors who profit, tend to subscribe to financial analysts services spend a little of their hard earned bankroll to purchase the time and labor these analysts perform of on the historical statistical analysis.
The same could be said for professional sports handicappers and tipsters who invest their labor into the statistical queries and analysis of the football teams and matchups. But rather than the sports gambler buying a one-time NFL pick from a respected NFL handicapper, those considering to apply our first tip of looking at the entire season from a statistical viewpoint, can obtain a full view of over 20 respect industry football handicappers who perform statistical analysis on a variety of key performance indicators, can do at IntelligentBettingTips.com (for a fraction of your wager), along with one of the largest public betting predictions if you are to take the tip to fade bet against the public consensus; or the underdog, which leads us to tip #2, bet the underdog.
Tip 2: Bet the underdog
Statistically speaking, history has shown the betting against the public, also known as betting against the squares or fading the public, is a popular sports betting strategy to bet the underdog. In other words, the best betting sites Super bowl futures are dictated by the public opinion, which favors the favorites. You can learn more about the betting public and predictions here.
Rodney Paul’s and Andrew Weinbach’s study, “Market Efficiency and a Profitable Betting Rule” published in The Journal of Sports Economics, underdogs of more than seven points win frequency is enough to produce statistically significant profits. Watching the numbers when handicapping football as statistically proven an edge when applied at the books.
Levitt believes oddsmakers recognize that most people bet on favorites and subsequently less than half of the games against the spread. After all, what do you think is a strong influencer in the best betting sites moving their lines? So statistically speaking, over time investing on the underdog can give the advantage on taking in a profit. But don’t bet the bankroll, which leads us to tip #3.
Tip 3: Don’t bet the bankroll
Simple and sweet. Don’t bet the bankroll on your Super bowl pick. Any avid sports investor understand the key to profiting is managing the bankroll and staying strong to their bankroll strategy. So stick to the #1 rule, don’t bet anything you cannot afford to lose, and if you are an avid sports investor, stay true to your bankroll management strategy, and leave room for opportunities if they hit.
Tip 4: Best betting sites…or the start ups
Do you drop your hard earn money at the best betting sites, or with the new sports books? While something can be said for taking advantage of deposit bonuses and attractive lines at the new sports books to attract action, such as reducing the vig or juice, you may prefer reputation to supercede the attractive lines. Why? payout. Check the betting sites reviews at forums and pubic sports betting review sites to get a feel how they’ve treated their customers.
Reputable sports books which are favored as the best betting sites earn their reputation on timely payouts to their players. Far to many new start up sports books may have best intent, but to often we’ve seen them fold up and either make it extremely difficult to transfer your wins, or simple take the money and run.
Albeit Justin Wolfers, assistant professor of business and public policy at the Wharton Business School where he teachers “Finance, Behavorial Economics and Sports Betting“, describes to focus your efforts on the newest betting exchanges, such as those on the Internet, that are reducing the “vig” – the charge taken on bets.
But in our opinion…reputation is everything and after all, the recreational sports bettor will likely make only get a small advantage on the vigor (vig), so better off knowing you’ll get your money after your big Super Bowl prediction win.
Tip 5: Wager The ‘Under’
Paul and Weinbach found that when NFL bettors get involved in totals bets (betting on whether the combined points scored by both teams will come in over or under a level set by the bookmaker), they tend to over bet the ‘over’ for those games where the over/under is 47.5 or greater. These authors theorize that bettor psychology may drive totals too high, making the ‘under’ bet a consistently profitable one.
So when deciding on your Super Bowl XLVII prediction this season, consider the 5 Super Bowl betting tips above to help you get the edge.