3 things I've learned winning Super bowl predictions 4 out of 5 years in a row

3 things I’ve learned winning Super bowl predictions 4 out of 5 years in a row

There are a few things I’ve picked up from betting on the Super Bowl over the years and they’ve even made me some money…good money. Sure there have been failures…and those hard fails have been turned into fast learnings that quickly turned into profitable returns.

Among all the NFL football betting tips and strategies I have learned, including the top 3 mistakes made betting on the super bowl,  is that most of the assumptions people come in with when making their Super Bowl pick and wager on the big game are all wrong.

For most people, betting on the NFL or Super Bowl is a fun hobby. These social gamblers bet their money, they lose, and they leave. But if you want that money, some of your inherent assumptions have to change about betting.

For many serious sports bettors and investors, betting…or when approached as strategic investment opportunities, it is a way of life and pays their bills and adds to their investment income.

Sports investing is a serious business, so if you’re not committed to taking it serious, and instead wagering on the Super Bowl as part of your hobby, or simply seeking to make a quick buck, then there’s nothing wrong with having fun. Just be a little more serious.

Tip 1: Play smart =  Care more about your money than your team

In every Super Bowl betting pool, there are winners, and there are losers. Your goal is to not be the latter. How? Simple. Remember that when you bet on a game (or Super Bowl) that you are investing in the outcome. It also helps to look for the 3 insights that show value for Super bowl wagers.

Betting is not chest-beating with money (well, it can be) but about figuring out who has the best chance of winning. If you’re betting because you like a player, that’s a bad idea and I’ll take your bet.  Why, that player will be the target on the field.

If you’re betting on the Super Bowl because that’s your hometown team and it’s a big deal, that’s a far worse idea – and I’ll still take your bet. Why? Romanticism can cloud one’s judgment. If that’s not clear, then it’s best to not proactively invest but play defensively.

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Tip 2: Playing defensively is smart

When you bet defensively on the Super bowl, you should have a good reason to do so, and that good reason is that the outcome is unclear. For those of you new to betting on the Super bowl or big game events, see this other article on 5 Super bowl betting tips.

Spread betting on the Super bowl, which is the most common way to play defensively, is a good way to hedge a bet. Almost invariably, if you spread bet, you should put money on the underdog, since the pressure in terms of betting is substantially reduced. Why? Because spread betting is actually hedged betting against the favorite. With a point spread, you’re adding a second qualifier to the favorite winning– that they have to win by a certain margin. This means that if the underdog loses just beneath the favorite, the underdog loses but stays within the spread, or the underdog wins, you win in all cases.

Tip 3: Be a contrarian. Play against the crowed

Aside from the value that comes with contrarian betting strategy or betting against the squares, and the simple fact that the crowd has been wrong 8 out of 10 times in the past decade on the Super Bowl, there’s a deeper reason to avoid betting with the crowd.

All the problems described above (favoritism, vested personal interest in a team winning, lack of clear strategy) are exacerbated in the crowd.

The biggest mistake a football bettor can make is assume that they are betting against a team. They are not. They are betting against another pool of players.

Therefore betting the way that pool of players bets pretty much guarantees you will get a minimal return regardless of the result. Bet defensively, bet smart, and bet without emotion. If you do that, you will always have a better chance of a return on your investment, and you’ll find that you lose less and win more over time.

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