As Seattle Seahawks seek to defend their Super Bowl title against the New England Patriot in Super Bowl XLIX, sports investors, bettors and gamblers alike are seeking who offers the best value. To provide insights into the value-side, we look at a few predictive indicators that give the sports bettor the data-drive insight into the wagering on the NFL point spread and moneyline.
Before we dive into who offers greater value, this is the first year that IntelligentBettingTips.com is offering free access to all Super bowl predictions and picks. Our Super bowl record the last 5 seasons is 4 and 1 (80%), and in the last Packers vs. Seahawks and Colts vs. Patriots, we went 12 of 12 (100%) on the spread, money line and totals.
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Talk to some expert NFL handicappers, football sports investors and Sharps, and they might tell you that recent events as understood by data analysis tend to show indicators of a greater impact and power of the highest seeded teams. This is taken as a sign of a quality NFL pick that shows greater profitability, with lower risk.
The problem with this approach to quality bets is that over the last few decades the Super Bowl winners have been spread somewhat evenly against the 6 NFL seeding positions. Among this even spread of the tops seeds, the guarantee of home field advantage shows that the top seeded NFL teams have most often failed to beat their opponents.
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While the latter statistical understanding can throw off even the best sports bettor, the takeaway here is that the among all the data-analysis bettor can perform, he must step outside the box and take consideration to other elements such as combined player talent, and a team hitting a ‘flow’, when predicting a Super Bowl winner.
New England Patriots: value on the point spread?
Looking back over the New England era from 2000 and onward, the Patriots have gone 194-73 (260 games) for a 73% winning percentage. But what is of more significance for a NFL handicapper of football bettor who picks on a single bet, the Patriots on the point spread have covered 57% of times over the same period.
What’s interesting here is that the point spread has been beaten by an average of over a field goal per game, and blindly following the Patriots has been profitable. More-so when the betting margins are small.
The insight here is that the data analysis shows a strong indicator that over 260 games the record against the spread is unlikely to have occurred coincidentally. The football gambler who simple takes a chance on a game, would have lost big time, whereas by a few simple queries against the Patriots betting data, would have shown a high degree of statistical confidence.
The New England Patriots first Super Bowl winning season (2001) in the era showcased only two games where New England was double-digit underdogs.
Subsequently they have been the favorites in 20 of the remaining post-season games with Tom Brady under centre, and despite a 71% straight up winning record, they have a mediocre 50% record against the spread.
So while the Patriots have won more often (71%) in the post season, they have not by margins that are over the spread expectations by the sports books. Statistically speaking, putting New England Patriots on the point spread is often correct or if anything over estimates their ability.t commits three or more
The last takeaway is to look at how well New Englands average players have elevate their playing since with the Patriots through the football season. The Pats have a tendency to take a mediocre player, and find his right fit to elevate the the NFL player into measurable talent on the team.
So this again plays to the flow of the team…collectively. If the Patriots starting line or roster for the Super Bowl indicates positioning players who have showcased the abilities to increase the flow of the team collectively, and the stats would show this (yards run, touch downs, first downs, sacks, etc.), then the Seahawks defence and offense will likely become confused with the Pats formations, keeping New England on the point and capitalize on miss-matches.
Seattle Seahawks: Statistical efficiency
Turnovers: For sports bettors with Seattle Seahawk prediction to win the Super bowl, one KPI they to consider in their betting system criteria are turn overs. While the Seahawks won the turn over contest last season, statistically that talent will rarely continue especially when you look at their differential in turn overs going from 20 in 2013, down to 10 this season.
Turn overs can dictate the difference between a win or loss, and this case a repeat Super bowl championship. Football bettors putting heavy criteria on turn overs in their betting system or Super bowl pick selection, it may play against them in this years Super Bowl.
The bettor or investor doesn’t need to look to far than this years season, where turnovers almost derailed Seattle’s attempt at qualify.
The Seahawks turned the ball over three more times than Green Bay in the Championship game, ceding both potential points and territory to a very good team and needed numerous, low probability plays to succeed to claim a win.
Looking at the data, a side that commits three or more turnovers more than their opponents wins just 10% of such games!
Therefore, if an NFL handicapper who includes in their betting system a statistic weighted partly in skill, shouldn’t detract from the Seahawk’s impressive, season long efficiency statistics. I admit luck and psychology played a bit part over beating the Packers, but anomalies as this are difficult to weigh into any prediction system. Nevertheless these numbers remain among the best in the league, placing Seattle above average in passing and running on both sides of the ball. And these efficiency factors played a bit part in IntelligentBettingTips.com in predicting 100% accuracy on 7 picks of the Packers vs. Seahawks game, and another 5 picks on the Colts vs. Patriots game. Total 12 NFL picks that delivered a 100% win rate.
Although the aftermath of Sunday’s Championship game focused on the early struggles on offense, particular under centre, the defense through necessity, played extremely well. You can assure the Seahawks will fix these offensive weaknesses in the upcoming Super Bowl game. Seattle confined Green Bay to field goals, rather than touchdowns, despite little rest and facing continually poor field position.
It is understandable that the most recent results have the most influence on how a side is perceived by the general betting public, sports books and media as ESPN, but New England were equally unimpressive when falling behind early in the Divisional round at home to Baltimore and early season, wide margin losses at Miami and Kansas City were also taken as a sign of impending failure.
Super Bowl XLIX betting tips: Alternative data points to consider
Seattle Seahawk Superbowl Pick:
Ok, both the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots are two equally matched top seeds. Seattle beats New England in efficiency statistics and has field advantage noting the familiarity Seahawks have playing on the field against the regular season NFC West rivals, the Arizona Cardinals.
New England Patriots Superbowl Pick:
On the other side, New England Patriots are brilliantly coached, excel at confusing opposing defences, while accumulating points in a methodical way, through Tom Brady whose post season experience surpasses that of any past or present player. But because the Patriots have had continued success, the sports books are perhaps asked to overcome a playoff premium against the spread in high profile matches.
Depending on sports investors or football bettors preferred choice of predictive statistics in their football betting system, a small case can made for either side given their strengths are closely matched. Yardage stats favour Seattle, while points differentials side with New England.
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