While there are a lot of ways things can go wrong betting on football, smart punters know how to face the odds and still produce a marginal overall return. The intelligent bettor doesn’t make the mistake of falling for one or two trends, and using all the information at hand, preferably as close to game day as possible, will make for smarter punting overall.
Treating derby games differently than season games
Applying non-overwhelming historical trends to current football seasons is always a mistake. Unfortunately, it’s a mistake that is all too common with punters. Why? Because the lure of a narrative is almost always irresistible. And that is a very big problem, especially when you begin seeing things in terms of fan bases as opposed to teams.
This is not to understate home field advantage, which can often make a difference, but said advantage is almost often overstated. Whatever football betting system a punter uses to determine advantage over the season should be the exact same way they calculate derby games. If anything, unless both teams playing are even overall, such advantage should be kept to a minimum, perhaps only slightly modifying the spread.
What can be done to avoid falling into the trap of the local derby? Study the weaknesses of both sides first before strengths. Don’t have the time to crunch the numbers for your football tips? Consider an expert football tipster to do all the leg work. But remember, Derby games are a great time for bad information (especially from media pendants on TV or online), and that bad information is almost always overstatement of one side or the other’s “keys to victory”.
Falling for certain football players to carry a season as opposed to overall team strength
There is always a lure and a buzz that surrounds new stars in the game. But one thing that doesn’t change is that on average, barring significant changes to the eleven overall, individual players cannot make up for overall team strength.
No, a single player doesn’t change the game statistically, so focus on teams, not on players. Individual player skills are useful for side bets and football tips. The biggest mistake that can be made is overreliance on players. Every star fades, and questions of reliability and even quality will often overshadow today’s star football player sooner, rather than later. The easiest way to avoid this is to study team strengths per rotation and see which is most advantageous overall. Your football betting system should take into account the statistical impact star players have on key matchups.
Not taking slight mitigating factors into account which can affect a game
One last point to consider in your football tips and lays is that certain key factors such as home field advantage and the weather can come into play and give a team advantage.
These are not major factors, but they can often make a decisive change in the game. A missing player can change the way a coach strategizes. How successful is the team on the pitch when it comes down to current formation in its current environment? The answer to that question applied to both sides will get better answers than simply “picking a side”.
The best way to avoid this is to think of all the factors that can affect the game: missing players, different formations, home field advantage, the weather forecast, which way the crowd is pulling (this is a net negative, tend against the crowd, not towards it) and more than anything else, win percentages against the other side and any streaks over the last few games. I know it sounds like a lot of factors and data points to look at – and honestly who has the time? But this is why, similar to your savings and investments in the equity markets, you may rely on the advice and recommendations from the experts whose job is to crunch the numbers, look at trends, etc. If time = money, consider finding an expert football tipster for your sports investing.