If you’ve ever applied a progressive betting system to your sports investing, you’ve probably discovered its not the most exciting form of soccer betting, but some punters claim they can make big profits.
We have a few members at IntelligentBettingTips.com who’ve applied a progressive betting systems to their betting strategy and done quite well, so its a good betting system or strategy to cover in this post an introduction to the Fibonacci betting system and investigate whether the average sports investor or bettor can achieve similar returns versus the investment risks.
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If you’re not already familiar with the Fibonacci strategy for betting on soccer, you can pick up the book by Fragiskos Archontakis and Even Osborne on Amazon.com.
The Fibonacci betting strategy in soccer is based on the idea of betting on a draw, and if you lose your soccer bet, then wager on the next one.
The repeated approach to this strategy plays out until you win. But there are two critical rules to follow:
- Bet on a soccer draw when the statistical probability is above 2.618
- Increase your stake that follows the Fibonacci sequence of 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so forth.
The betting principle here comes from the theory that the soccer draw is the most difficult for online sportsbooks and bookmakers to predict the outcome…thus its much easier to be exploited.
Like other similar sports betting strategies, the principle holds that as long as you continually increase your stake, any win will overcome the previous losses.
Fibonacci Betting Strategy 101
The principle of the Fibonacci betting strategy can be demonstrated by looking at the 2011-2012 Premier League data. The season produced 93 draws in 380 matches.
This equates to a 24.5% ratio of soccer matches that ended in a draw. Coincidentally the betting odds for a draw in all these games were above the 2.618 level, as suggested by Fragiskos Archontakis and Even Osborne.
Thus on average there should be a sports bet win every four games. This means the stake would be the fourth Fibonacci number, 5.
Applying Fibonacci 5, and a total bet of £10 for each match (noting this is the winning stake added to the lost three stakes before it: 1, 1, and 3).
If you look at the data, the average odds for a draw over this season was 4.203. This equates to the average winnings would be £21.02 (£5 stake multiplied by the odds), and an investment profit of £11.02 when the stakes have been subtracted.
Based on this data, then over those 380 games it equates to a theoretical profit of £1786.7. Not bad profit considering an initial wager of £1.
Weaknesses of the Fibonacci Strategy
With all sports betting systems come their drawbacks, and with the Fibonacci betting system it also offers its limitations.
The first drawback is a given; the number of soccer matches that are played throughout a season concurrently. This means there is little to no option to raise your stake to the following Fibonacci number if a tie or draw occurs. Rather, the sports investor or punter could apply a Fibonacci betting sequence to individuals teams or some other statistical frequency.
The results of this drawback may cause lengthy losing streaks inbetween matches with a draw, putting a large dent in the sports investors or punters bankroll balance.
For example, the longest streak in the Premier League without a draw was 20 games (Man U 2008/09) finally closing in on a zero – zero draw against Arsenal.
You can see the weakness of this betting system, but for those who stuck through the thick and thin and applied the Fionacci soccer betting system to these matches, you would have netted a winnings of £44,878.60, or a profit of £16.222.60 (having placed a £10,946 wager on the match with 4.10 odds on a draw.
How the Fibonacci Betting System Works
Popularized in the UK and throughout Europe, the Fibonacci betting system sequence is one of the most widely known numeric sequences in mathematics, characterised by a simple formula:
N3 = N1 + N2
This formula shows that after the two starting numbers, each additional number in the sequence is the sum of the two preceding numbers.
For example, the betting system sequence begins 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21. A quick review of the at the start of the sequence, looks like this:
- N1 = 1, N2 = 1, and therefore N3 = 2
- N1 = 1, N2 = 2, and therefore N3 = 3
- N1 = 2, N2 = 3, and therefore N3 = 5
- N1 = 3, N2 = 5, and therefore N3 = 8
Does the Fibonacci betting system work for soccer investing?
Like the Fibonacci sequence itself, the betting strategy is commonly known as a mathematical approach to sports investing (see the Intelligent Tips football tips for European leagues). Similar to the Intelligent tips we produce from the complex analysis of collective intelligence and data from industry handicappers and the global consensus, the Fibonacci betting system utilizes a much more simpler mathematical approach.
But with the Fibonacci system, a major differentiator is in its approach as a progressive betting system. There are a number of progressive betting systems used today to bet on soccer and produce soccer tips, but in this case this popular soccer betting system works extremely well with a large bankrolls and unlimited limits. But this is not the case for the majority of punters in the market.
Albeit this betting system is constrained in its methodology when considering these factors, it does like all soccer and sports betting systems succumb to the same unpredictability as all betting systems in the real world of sports investing and betting – the unknown outcome of future events.
The limits this places on the sports investor and punter, whether due to bankroll limitations or barriers an online sportsbook places on the size of wager required from frequency of historical wagers, this soccer betting system will eventually churn out a win.
My viewpoint as a soccer betting system to employ in a sports investment strategy, I’d limit a small portion of my bankroll to try the Fibonacci sequence. But unlike other preferred betting strategies to employ, the Fibonacci is not a long term profitable investment strategy.