There’s a reason that NFL betting is a billion-dollar industry: it’s profitable for oddsmakers, and most people (especially Americans) betting on the NFL treat it as a personal emotional game, especially their own free NFL picks.
That’s a money-losing proposition for most football gamblers and novice sports investors, so in this post I’ll highlight some of the worst mistakes we’ve seen NFL bettors make.
These football betting tips is a combination of what bookmakers have told us they see with some of their worst football betting players, and common themes from industry conversation. The aim with this post is that it helps you avoid potential traps in NFL betting, improve your winning NFL picks selections, and avoid some of the most often misunderstood rookie mistakes.
These football betting tips won’t make you rich, but they might keep your bankroll from going empty too early and help you improve your seasonal bankroll and sports investments.
The key to every single NFL betting strategy starts exactly the same. Do you have a favorite team? Not anymore you don’t! Why? Because when you let feelings and personal preferences cloud judgment that is ultimately mathematical, you lose. Even if you win a game or two, overall you will begin a losing pattern that you can’t escape. Some sports investors find the value in 3rd parties, such as an Expert NFL handicapper who spends the time to perform the necessary research, analysis and spends the time crunching the numbers and data to find patterns, trends and other data-driven statistical insights — an unbiased approach to picking your NFL favourite pick.
This Weeks Free NFL Picks
Following the crowd in the face of data
Everyone’s rooting for the Cowboys? The Cowboys are a sure bet? They’re talking about it on ESPN, CBS Sports, Twitter, Sky Sports and almost anywhere you consume media.
Turn off the TV, close the apps. on your iPhone and focus.
Look at simple numbers to guide your NFL pick decisions such as win/loss percentages, historical points and watch the key numbers when betting on NFL football. Look at the team who scored the most. Look at head to head matchups. Factor in whatever you want for a football betting system. Just don’t make the crowd your focus. Talking heads are entertainers, and the crowd is there to be entertained.
Lacking coherent bankroll strategy
Bankroll strategy tips are repetitive advice the sports bettor will here, but all to often overlooked. You know the effects of a poor bankroll management strategy, where the same money management fundamentals apply to investing in the stock markets, and in personal finances. If you have $500 over the course of a season and you blow your bet on “the big game” (or stock or weekend purchase), your season is over.
Not controlling emotions and your betting bankroll is irresponsible, and often leads to a debt spiral that can wipe out your bankroll to nothing, and even injure you personally and financially.
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Start simple – divide the number of weeks you’re betting the sports markets, and limit your deposits and wagers accordingly, or try these 6 bankroll management tips for betting on the NFL (or most other sports betting markets for that matter). After awhile and proven to yourself of your sounds management, then look at more advanced sports betting strategies to increase the probability of profits. You need to walk before you can run.
Not reading where the house is going
If the bookmaker is giving 50-1 odds, then that’s probably not the best bet 😉 You’re looking to make the quick buck, which you should know by now rarely works in life. Better yet, consider looking for the most even bets at the bookie, and go contrarian.
Make use of spread betting and look at multiple sports book for value in the odds. Don’t go for “great looking bets” unless you’ve picked up on something that others haven’t. (And for the record, the chances of that are usually pretty slim.)
Monday Night Martingale
Ever lost your bet on the weekend and thought I’ll just double it up on Monday Night Football to make up for the losses? That’s the essence of the Martingale system, which basically assumes a winning bet will eventually happen. And statistically, that’s true– eventually.
You just might be flat broke by the time it happens. The NFL league and the Networks own Monday night for a good reason — and the blood Monday Night Football was built on is the Martingale betting. This is why its believed that Monday night football was created in the first place, and why you’ll find the attributes of most people betting on Monday Night Football are not professional sports investors, but simple football gamblers or fan addicted recreational sports bettors. What type of sports bettor are you (there are 10)?
Lost out on the weekend? Do not shift your discipline and strategy (though its fair to re-assess your strategic inputs), and do not overspend. That will increase your ability to make more winning bets later.
These 5 of the worst mistakes NFL football bettors make are only a sample of the popular mistakes that winning sports bettors have shared with us that differentiate themselves from other sports bettors.