Timely to say the least with the NFL and college football season upon us, so wanted to share this with our sports investors as they select their choice of football picks from the nfl handicappers and intelligent tips offered. After all, a smart investor is a profitable investor.
The 30,000 foot view on handicapping the football season is to view the entire season as a continuous series of short seasons. Each one is a little bit different, and strong football bettors and investors need to tailor their bankrolls accordingly to best take advantage of the investment opportunities for profit.
The first of those mini-seasons can be said to be made up of the first two or three games of the year. Why? The general rule of thumb is that these games involve a lot of nervous sentiment before the football teams have played any meaningful games.
Also, these first few NFL games will see the general betting public without a clue how to make sense how good a team really is, and what they are actually capable of. Some may gauge this on the preseason, but it’s reasonably easy then to play the investment strategy on your NFL picks to bet against the public (or college football picks) to get immediately ahead in the early season. Yes, it’s a good way to find a profit.
Tip 1: 5 things to get ready for the first mini-season
The public is looking backwards, so look forward – Most of the public betting players will base their first betting decisions on what has happened in the past – the team’s reputation after last season, and not necessarily on the preseason.
Intelligent bettors and investors know that what matters is not what has happened, but how that information all affects what the team is going to be able to do on the field right away.
By escaping the last football season, and look at what is going to happen you can give yourself an edge. For example, the public will be excited if a big name veteran joins a team, but won’t spend nearly as much time thinking about what role that veteran will actually fill, how much of an improvement he is over who he is replacing, and what kind of an impact he will actually have on the team early in the season.
Filter the media hype from ESPN, CBS and Fox Sports. The hype pumped by these sports outlets can cloud anyones judgement – just like Kramer and stock promotors on your local business news pumping the next great resource company.
The job of smart bettors and investors in these early games is to determine if the team is ready to live up to that hype right away. If a team is getting a lot of public coverage then the public money will sway to them through the sportsbooks, and bet on them heavily regardless of their actual situation.
And the gem in the ground are those teams that don’t actually live up to the hype that has been directed towards them or aren’t quite ready to play to their full potential yet = major investment opportunities.
You don’t got on your first date not prepared ;-), so does the public by analyzing the team roster, their potential, and make quick decisions accordingly. In the early games, the rosters may not be ready to play as well as they ultimately will be able to.
Whether its new star players taking time to synergize their potential, or veterans building up the team chemistry, it may take a couple of games to really take hold.
And lastly, understand where the public consensus and money is going. It’s a key betting strategy by sharps. Why? By doing that you know what they are thinking, what teams they are liking, and which bets they are over-investing in.
The earlier in the season the less concrete information people have on teams so the more likely that the public is making decision s based on faulty assumptions and hype.
Some, it not many, of those assumptions and tendencies will be more obvious than others, so by tracking the action you can see where the betting is heavy, determine why they are betting that way, and see if there are ways to capitalize your sports investment and find the value. Whether you do this yourself, or rely on an expert NFL handicapper or analyst, ensure you’re prepared for the first mini-season of the NFL season.