succesful football bettor interview

Interview: How I made 300% return on my sports betting in one season

It might seem impossible for a novice bettor, after having a few varied winning streaks to even envision how someone could hit +100% return betting on sports over a season. But experienced bettors (who apply sound strategy and ride the long term seasonal performance) know that there are things that you can (and need) do to change the way you bet on sports to turn greater profits.

The biggest change the majority of sports bettors have to make is this:  Accept that in sports investing, taking losses at the books is all part of game: if you understand and accept that, you’re already more than halfway to success.

Any professional sports bettor will tell you, there is a psychological understanding to separate emotion from the strategy. You will have winning weeks, and losing weeks, but emotions won’t dictate sound decisions. There is applicability to re-think or adjust their active betting strategy during losing streaks – but this is simply adjusting to hedge against losses and adapt to evolving trends and patterns that most data can tell indicate. Read more

NFL football sharks betting mistakes

3 big mistakes NFL Sharps make

While there are definitely always ways a sports bettor can improve his sports investment management strategy, a lot of people focus on how NFL Sharps handle their betting investments, just as many equity investors follow wealthy stock market investors as Warren Buffet or successful fund managers.

But even in sports betting, sharps make mistakes and it’s important to keep that in mind if your goal is to improve your sports betting profitability and success of your overall sports betting strategy. Read more

4 tips to handicapper college basketball rematch conference games

4 tips for handicapping college basketball rematch conference games

4 tips to handicapper college basketball rematch conference gamesIf you’ve ever played a college basketball pick on a game, or an avid sport bettor on the games, you’ve probably quickly realized that a tricky part of gambling on college basketball conference games are the rematches.

Its not uncommon that in the NCAA conference two teams will play each other twice, both home and away. Most beginner sports bettors get taken on the rematch games as as they often look only at the previous match up.

Unfortunately its not as simple. You can take confidence in a knowledge college basketball handicapper and play their college picks, or do your research to look at many of the factors that go into that second conference game. These factors can make or break your college basketball bankroll profits, and can make college basketball handicappers much more profitable when betting on the second conference game. Read more

Cricket tips

2 beginner tips for betting on Cricket

Cricket has been a growing market for sports investors over the last few years, and with the advent of the web and media coverage it’s now possible to wager on cricket almost year round. For those new to betting on cricket, the profit opportunity can be had across the three major forms of the international cricket circuit.

Test matches which last for 5 days, with the most famous rivalries in international cricket being England and Australia competing for The Ashes every other year. And this is also the timing where cricket tipsters will spend special focus on the historical analysis of betting data across cricket teams as punters begin looking for their Expert cricket tips and bookies. One Day Internationals which are 50 over matches with the Cricket World Cup also coming round every 4 years. Read more

football accumulator tips

5 tips how to improve football accumulators

Americans who wager on soccer may not be as familiar with football accumulators as their fellow punters across the pond.

An ‘accumulator’ bet in football (soccer) is one of the most common football wagers made by punters across Europe…well, outside of North America.

An ‘accumulator’ is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those bets winning together.

For those football bettors or punters who use free football tips, or purchase their tips from top tipsters, tend to believe that single wagers give punters better chances of turning profit in the long run. Read more

Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers: Three Things I’ve Learned From Covers (Ted Servansky)

Anyone who follows sports betting knows Ted Servansky, known in the sports betting world as Teddy Covers.

An ESPN (related: ESPN college football betting system) commentator and professional sports bettor, he doesn’t usually “ignite the flames” when one thinks of big time gamblers. What he does do, however, is provide insight into how the industry works and how new sports bettors interested in making the jump to professional betting, or even sports investing, can do so. Among this, he identifies clearly what type of sports bettor he is among the 10 types of sports bettors in the market to watch for. Read more

poisson distribution soccer betting

Poisson Distribution: How to calculate winning soccer bets

Poisson Distribution is one of the most efficient ways to gauge a winner in soccer (football). When the poisson distribution system is used correctly, it can help determine the average goal scoring probability between two sides. That said, it can also be one of the more complex ways to calculate a potential winner, and it is isn’t perfect. So we’ll go over the basics here.

Poisson Distribution is based upon formulas, so if you aren’t fantastic with long division and multiplication, you might want a calculator.

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

If the above looks complicated and makes you say WTF, don’t worry. We’ll break it down for you. Basically, this is the principle formula behind the poisson distribution system, and what this formula does is it calculates the probability of the success of an event (in this case, a goal) over a specific window (in this case, a game). So let’s leave that alone for a bit and we’ll take two clubs. Since we need a window of time to gauge overall skill level, we’ll use a full season.

Related: 11 Tips: How beginner soccer punters should bet on soccer (football)

The first thing you’re going to do is deal with the total goals scored over a season. So first, divide the home teams’s goals by total games played. Then, divide the away goals by total games played. This will produce two decimal numbers for home and away strength, which then give us total attack strength for the club during the defined period.

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Next, you’ll need the number of goals conceded. There’s no math involved here, simply invert the numbers. (If the home and away strength were 1.574 and 1.195, respectively, then the goals conceded will be 1.195 and 1.574 for the goals conceded.)

Repeat this process for the away team.

Ready for Some Multiplication?

After you’ve calculated the numbers above for both teams, the answers become a little clearer. The key to remember here for the poisson distribution system is that you are not calculating a single set of probabilities, but two sets: one for the home team and one for the away team.

So the first thing to do is calculate the home team’s attack strength.

Take the number of goals scored at home over the time period (the season) by the home team and divide that number by number of home games.

After this, divide the answer by the season’s average home goals scored per game to get the home team’s Attack Strength.

Home Goals = Home Attack * Away Defense * Average No. Goals

Once this is done, repeat the process in the inverse with the away team’s numbers, calculating as:

Away Goals = Away Attack * Home Defense * Average No. Goals

This will likely produce two decimal numbers, one higher than the other. While that might be somewhat useful on the money line or 1X2 betting or asian handicapping, when using the poisson distribution system for making your soccer picks or other sports betting, that will not be useful for calculating goal probabilities.

This is the best time to introduce the Poisson Distribution Calculator. After calculating the above, you can simply plug the numbers into the calculator for the probability of each team to score a goal. By using a margin of, say, four goals, you can simply place a goal outcome (say, between 1-4) in the “random variable”, and the likelihood of a team scoring (the multiplied formula), and the calculator will issue that probability. By using the calculator with both teams up to a set number of goals, you can have a pretty good estimate in terms of highest probability in total score, and can compare it accordingly to the sports book.

One word of advice, however: soccer is unique in that a change in the narrative can completely throw numbers to the wind. Pay attention to things before you make our football tips, such as key stats that can play a major influence on impacting the score, and the game outcome.

4 TIps I learned from betting on college basketball

4 tips I learned from Sharps to win at college basketball (NCAAB) betting

College Basketball is growing sports investment market and among recreational bettors as they transition their bankrolls and winnings from the NFL season and augment their NBA plays. Among this, NCAAB is everywhere across the US from office pools to Vegas lines. There are anywhere from dozens to hundreds of games to bet on every week, and it’s easy to get caught up in the emotional side of the game. It’s also just as easy to go broke, since there are a lot of sports bettors who have no idea what they’re doing when they bet on basketball.

But having met a few smart basketball investors who claim their Sharp or wiseguy status (of course most only talk about their wins), I took away from those conversations and their insights on their own systems betting on college basketball, what they feel they do different than other basketball bettors, and also their perspectives on using data-driven basketball betting systems for predictive sports betting systems, such as successful Sharp basketball investor Bob Voulgaris betting system approach. Read more

Haralabos (Bob) Voulgaris

Bob Voulgaris: How basketball bettor Bob Voulgaris still wins using data-driven, predictive sports betting systems

Among the most famous sports gamblers in basketball betting today is Bob Voulgaris who is largely known for his early, spectacular rise and subsequent fall. But unlike many sports bettors who fell victim to a losing streak, Voulgaris returned to the limelight by changing when everyone else stayed the same.

Voulgaris is better known as a top sports investor in the sports betting industry, as he stands in a class of his own among the recreational sports gamblers and bettors. Yet while Voulgaris has had an extraordinary life, there are useful sports betting strategies that can help sports bettors everywhere stay on top of their investments. While Voulgaris is quite tight-lipped about his current actual strategies, quick studies can pick up on a number of instructive guidelines that can help improve their own chances at winning. Read more

The Computer Group - How the computer group made millions betting on sports

How the Computer Group Made Millions in the Early 80’s on College Football, And Why That’ll Never Happen Again

Almost anyone who knows about the history of online sports betting knows about the Computer Group, perhaps the most successful computerized sports betting (see video) group in history, whose success led to the arrests of the entire group, including famed sports bettor Billy Walters, after investigations that the group was involved in an illegal bookmaking operation in 1985.

After the indictments of the members, the Computer Group split, and the level of success they reached was never to be repeated. But why? It’s a useful lesson to learn from their own history. Read more