Bad sports gambling beats

3 destructive football betting syndromes no Sharp or Tipster can tolerate

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As we get into the final weeks of the NFL season, it’s a good idea to take a brief moment to remember where stupid money flows and bet against it.

Remember there are a lot of ways to screw up at sports betting. The three destructive areas I’ll cover momentarily, are basically the worst– the sort of mentalities that lead even a novice Sharp or handicapper to run from a football game mumbling to himself about fate of all humanity.

Homer-ism
No, this is not a reference to Homer Simpson– he actually had a Sharp in his corner during the classic episode Lisa the Greek— but the constant desire for one’s home team to win.

This becomes less pronounced during the Super Bowl (unless, of course, there’s a home team playing in the crowd) but it is the worst kind of way to bet– and unfortunately, it’s also the most common. Wishing for your team to win the Super Bowl or #NFLSunday, and knowing your team’s real probability of winning are two very different things, and unfortunately the passion that the game incites inspires stupid betting.

Bettors bet with their heads. Gamblers bet with their hearts. So the biggest red flag is to hear the words “you’re from City X– how can you bet against them?” You can take instant comfort in the fact that you are talking to a person that has no clue what they are doing. Read more →

5 mistakes nfl bettors make

5 of the worst mistakes NFL football bettors make

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There’s a reason that NFL betting is a billion-dollar industry: it’s profitable for oddsmakers, and most people (especially Americans) betting on the NFL treat it as a personal emotional game, especially their own free NFL picks.

That’s a money-losing proposition for most football gamblers and novice sports investors, so in this post I’ll highlight some of the worst mistakes we’ve seen NFL bettors make.

These football betting tips is a combination of what bookmakers have told us they see with some of their worst football betting players, and common themes from industry conversation. The aim with this post is that it helps you avoid potential traps in NFL betting, improve your winning NFL picks selections, and avoid some of the most often misunderstood rookie mistakes.

These football betting tips won’t make you rich, but they might keep your bankroll from going empty too early and help you improve your seasonal bankroll and sports investments.

Picking favorites
The key to every single NFL betting strategy starts exactly the same. Do you have a favorite team? Not anymore you don’t! Why? Because when you let feelings and personal preferences cloud judgment that is ultimately mathematical, you lose. Even if you win a game or two, overall you will begin a losing pattern that you can’t escape. Some sports investors find the value in 3rd parties, such as an Expert NFL handicapper who spends the time to perform the necessary research, analysis and spends the time crunching the numbers and data to find patterns, trends and other data-driven statistical insights — an unbiased approach to picking your NFL favourite pick. Read more →

Mark Cuban sports investing hedge fund sports gambling

How Mark Cuban’s sports betting hedge fund took flight

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Back in 2004, Mark Cuban wrote a blog post that shocked a lot of people in the business world: he announced (but only somewhat seriously) his interest in Mark Cuban starting a hedge fund based on sports betting. The logic was ironclad, and still is…. there is a better rate of return for smart money in sports gambling investing than in the stock market.

Cuban’s idea had a lot of sound logic behind it: the return at a casino is roughly the same as in certain funds for breakeven purposes (but less expensive), and sports betting is different in that there is an expectation of loss, whereas in traditional investing there is an expectation of profit. This changes the way the money is handled, and smart bettors can expect better returns by having more information. And in this, Cuban argued, sports work out far better than the market: most people have much, much more information about their sports teams than the companies in their hedge funds.

Still, traditional investors scoffed (probably more out of personal offense than actual analysis): could a group of successful sports bettors actually have a better rate of return than market hedge funds? Two groups have tried, and one group has survived, and even moved to the UK to expand. Both are instructive in that they can show us exactly how sports bettors succeed and fail. Read more →

3 football punter mistakes

The three worst mistakes football (soccer) punters make

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While there are a lot of ways things can go wrong betting on football, smart punters know how to face the odds and still produce a marginal overall return. The intelligent bettor doesn’t make the mistake of falling for one or two trends, and using all the information at hand, preferably as close to game day as possible, will make for smarter punting overall.

Treating derby games differently than season games
Applying non-overwhelming historical trends to current football seasons is always a mistake. Unfortunately, it’s a mistake that is all too common with punters. Why? Because the lure of a narrative is almost always irresistible. And that is a very big problem, especially when you begin seeing things in terms of fan bases as opposed to teams. Read more →

matched betting free bets at the bookies

Matched Betting: How to beat the bookies at their own game for free

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A number of years ago when I was on the Client Care phone lines having daily conversations with our members, I always remember the conversation I had with one of our members who was a financial specialist in the banking industry and somewhat new to investing in the sports markets.

We talked on numerous topics during that hour, among which was the latest sport tips and matched betting. When I gave him the 30K foot view of matched betting, he at first was a little suspicious. I mean who wouldn’t….using free money to beat the bookies on the World Cup. As he bluntly said, “It sounded way too good to be true, especially with the claim it was risk-free”.

For those new to the matched betting…

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Matched betting (also known as back or lay bet matching, or double betting) is a betting technique used by individuals to profit from the free bets and incentives offered by bookmakers.
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I too am not much of a believer in schemes that purport to be risk free, so I approached the idea from both the good and the bad, and acknowledged is skepticism was typical.

But, to his shock, the introductory bet offers I showed him from the online sports  books were plenty and impressive!  Having taken about 25 myself, I’ve in fact made about a few hundred pounds. And the added bonus, is that it was made tax-free, and without risk. In the end, it isn’t about gambling. It’s taking advantage of offers to give you an edge over the rest, or a ‘try before you buy’ model to experience the service. Somewhat like free football tips that expert tipsters offer…but unique in its own way. Read more →

football tipsters top tips for punters

10 tips football punters need to know when betting on Euro football

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There are a few key tips punters should never forget when it comes to betting on the Premier League and the Champions League.

European and international football is a huge game to bet on and among the most popular with football tipsters and their football tips, and there are a lot of profit-making opportunities that abound if you know how to look for them. Besides studying the statistics, players, and coaches a great deal, here are some of the important football tips to consider whenever you’re looking to profit on the football markets.

  1. Home, Sweet Home. Home field advantage is one of the major trends to focus on when betting the Premier League. Most teams have more than 50% of their wins at home, and playing on their home pitch is what makes all the difference. Keep that in mind whenever you’re selecting your football tips and how an Expert football tipster performs with his tips.
  2. In the Premier League, its all about trends. While some clubs may have up-and-down seasons, on average by the midseason break you can get a pretty good idea of which way clubs are trending down the table. Betting against losing teams (that are not at the point of relegation yet) is a decent strategy to look for bargains, but make sure to do your homework about their state and that of the opposition.
  3. How clubs play in the Champions League usually does NOT determine their league play. Unlike the Premier League (and most major national football leagues) the Champions League is a huge mix of play styles and different types of match-ups you may not be used to. It’s smart to look at how clubs fared against other styles within their league, but it won’t be the most clear comparison unfortunately. A lot of calculation will be based on relative team strength, and strong KPI to watch for in your football betting system.
  4. Follow matchups, not national leagues. Put away any biases about one country being better than another in the Champions League. While one can make some general observations and countries often have multiple wins in a row, that can change at any given moment, so watching a particular club’s trajectory based on what is expected of them is also a good idea.
  5. Pay attention to playing styles. Often clubs play very good offensive or defensive football. And often those styles collide. Very strong offensive clubs matched against each other will often play high-scoring games. The opposite is true for defensive clubs.
  6. Don’t listen to crowd claims: upsets are pretty common. The Champions League is one of the few tournaments that is well-known for its unpredictability so it is important to take each bet on a match-by-match basis. Crowds have huge opinions on these games, but what is often forgotten is that the crowds that cheer together cry together as well. Don’t trust the crowd.
  7. When dealing with low-scoring clubs, look for bargains. When dealing with low-scoring or defensive clubs, find good lines on the over/under.
  8. Shop different lines at the bookies. While often they will try to get close together around game time, that’s not always the case. Once you’ve decided your football tips look for the best deals.
  9. Over/under bets can be very profitable in the Champions League. Because of the random nature of team selection and qualification, finding offensive and defensive matchups is easy, so make sure to use spread betting when it comes to those games.
  10. You can’t use the same rules betting on UCL as you can on the BPL. UCL is a tricky beast, and often requires a lot of background studying to be really good at. League trends often don’t matter, and clubs doing poorly in their national league having qualified for UCL the year before will often try their best to focus on a Cup to bring home. Don’t assume underdogs from current league play unless there’s a good reason.
NBA basketball myths

3 insane NBA betting myths that are actually true!

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We all known NBA is big for betting at the online sports books, and one of the more interesting leagues to bet on because of the straight mathematics of the system.

Basketball has a lot of rules in place to make sure that parity is ensured, which is why there are few “systems” that work besides pure, unfiltered statistical analysis. Heck, just ask world-renowned basketball bettor Bob Voulgaris.

But because of this (and all the lost bets by the wayside), a number of crazy ideas about betting on the NBA that sound mythical are actually real!

#1. Betting on NBA Preseason

Preseason betting in basketball is more risky than almost any other season. While this seems difficult to swallow, believe it. Rules are designed to ensure parity between teams will make it more likely that the preseason will be unpredictable. Why? The NBA is very tightly controlled to ensure that no one team or club can establish a dynasty very successfully – of course there is Jordans Chicago Bulls. But while teams may have a good run for a few years, there’s little chance of a 20 or 30 year dynasty in the NBA.

Teams that are unsuccessful are given a huge advantage through the draft for the next year. In short, it is almost impossible to predict how the most successful and least successful teams will perform this year based on next year. Even the most expert NBA  handicappers understand this context, and will constantly refine their basketball betting systems to take into account how draft picks and their performance could give the edge to the underdogs.

That is something that would be determined, ultimately, within the first few weeks of the season– meaning that the bets you place during the early season need to be extremely conservative – and why we advise sports investors to monitor any Experts basketball picks performance between pre-season, and few weeks after into regular season, very closely. Why? The appropriate mix of data points are considered in NBA betting systems and are essentially stress tested in these games. Therefore any Expert handicappers NBA betting system should showcase a shining performance – or at least more profitable than the average, if the right mix of statistical data points have been considered and tested.

#2. Ignore Offence and Defence

Your basketball picks should not be determined based simply on what key players are starting on offence or defence. Why? Offence and defence don’t matter because you have to deal with relative team strength.

Novice bettors place all their stock on offence or defense and usually rank teams based on that overall. However, neither of those two attributes can work on their own. In fact, they’re almost inseparable, meaning that your defenders can be just as valuable to a team line-up as your attackers. So selecting your basketball picks and betting on those picks based on a strong offence or defence can be a mistake, particularly if the opposing teams are well suited to apply or handle pressure overall.

#3. Favor the Low Ranks

Statistical analysis shows that betting against teams that are lower ranked at the end of the season deliver profitable advantages. It is not surprising to see teams on the lower end of the table “giving it their all” and their all ends up not looking like much. You might see some occasional heroics, but most of what you will see will be baseline play to avoid the charge of throwing the game– something that led to a league scandal a few years ago.

So if you are dealing with teams that are on the lower end, look at their win/loss percentages of recent games and make a determination as to whether a team is going to phone it in. You can also look at how these 5 tips for betting on the NBA playoffs can also augment your basketball betting strategy. But simply put, betting against teams in these situations is a much smarter strategy.

nhl hockey betting secrets

2 tips Sharp NHL bettors don’t want you to know

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There are a number of different NHL betting strategies that can be of value to the novice hockey bettor if they maintain focus and keep a healthy bankroll management strategy.

Unlike other major American leagues, I found it insightful to hear from our top sports investor members who perform well in the NHL betting market that NHL is still somewhat niche for most recreational and semi-professional sports bettors.

And because of this lack of investment enthusiasm betting on hockey, there is a lot more emotion involved with sports bettors who wager on the NHL — and knowing that is your greatest weapon when beginning with a NHL betting strategy and selecting your NHL picks from a top hockey handicapper.

The professional hockey bettors and Sharps we spoke with shared a number of insightful tips that we’ll post in future articles, and to kick this off we’ll start with the following 2 tips that Sharp NHL bettors unveiled that most hockey bettors don’t know or realize (or simply ignore). Read more →

Don't bet on the Superbowl

Don’t bet on the NFL Super bowl if….

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If you’re wagering on the Super bowl this year with no sound strategy or minimal understanding how to increase your success to win your Super bowl bets…then save your money and don’t bet on the game as I’m sure there are thousands of better ways you could spend the money. Does this sound like you?

When Super Bowl weekend arrives, you can expect that there will be lots of opportunities to make a profit on the game if you understand what you’re doing…similar with wagering on the weekly NFL picks and selections throughout the regular season. Of course, many opportunities exist because the Super Bowl is one of the most gambled games of the year– people are willing to throw money away (gambling) on what appears to be, on paper, a 50/50 chance. Then why not just flip a coin and hold your breathe, or keep is low-key and play squares at your Superbowl party (Tip: Superbowl: Best strategies for playing squares).

We, being our sports investor members, are not those people (though we like a mean game of squares as the cherry $$ on top of our big Superbowl pay day). But for those who are not a sports investor member (join for free) and perhaps a recreational or social gambler, then here are three major ways to NOT to bet on the Super Bowl!

Don’t bet with the crowd

Betting with the crowd is a great way to lose your money. Bookmakers adjust their lines to give the house a slight advantage, so even when the numbers appear to be in your favor, it’s better to start looking for better number. Read more →

nfl super bowl sharp money betting

5 Tips: How Sharps profit, betting on the NFL Super Bowl

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In the NFL betting markets, Sharps like big games. Why? The don’t bet like Super Bowl gamblers. Super Bowl gamblers can expect to lose record amounts of money on Super Bowl in any year because as the money goes into the pool X number of ways, which increases the loss probability exponentially. Here are five ways to avoid the noise and increase the success of winning your Super Bowl wagers this year.  Read more →