football tipsters top tips for punters

10 tips football punters need to know when betting on Euro football

There are a few key tips punters should never forget when it comes to betting on the Premier League and the Champions League.

European and international football is a huge game to bet on and among the most popular with football tipsters and their football tips, and there are a lot of profit-making opportunities that abound if you know how to look for them. Besides studying the statistics, players, and coaches a great deal, here are some of the important football tips to consider whenever you’re looking to profit on the football markets.

  1. Home, Sweet Home. Home field advantage is one of the major trends to focus on when betting the Premier League. Most teams have more than 50% of their wins at home, and playing on their home pitch is what makes all the difference. Keep that in mind whenever you’re selecting your football tips and how an Expert football tipster performs with his tips.
  2. In the Premier League, its all about trends. While some clubs may have up-and-down seasons, on average by the midseason break you can get a pretty good idea of which way clubs are trending down the table. Betting against losing teams (that are not at the point of relegation yet) is a decent strategy to look for bargains, but make sure to do your homework about their state and that of the opposition.
  3. How clubs play in the Champions League usually does NOT determine their league play. Unlike the Premier League (and most major national football leagues) the Champions League is a huge mix of play styles and different types of match-ups you may not be used to. It’s smart to look at how clubs fared against other styles within their league, but it won’t be the most clear comparison unfortunately. A lot of calculation will be based on relative team strength, and strong KPI to watch for in your football betting system.
  4. Follow matchups, not national leagues. Put away any biases about one country being better than another in the Champions League. While one can make some general observations and countries often have multiple wins in a row, that can change at any given moment, so watching a particular club’s trajectory based on what is expected of them is also a good idea.
  5. Pay attention to playing styles. Often clubs play very good offensive or defensive football. And often those styles collide. Very strong offensive clubs matched against each other will often play high-scoring games. The opposite is true for defensive clubs.
  6. Don’t listen to crowd claims: upsets are pretty common. The Champions League is one of the few tournaments that is well-known for its unpredictability so it is important to take each bet on a match-by-match basis. Crowds have huge opinions on these games, but what is often forgotten is that the crowds that cheer together cry together as well. Don’t trust the crowd.
  7. When dealing with low-scoring clubs, look for bargains. When dealing with low-scoring or defensive clubs, find good lines on the over/under.
  8. Shop different lines at the bookies. While often they will try to get close together around game time, that’s not always the case. Once you’ve decided your football tips look for the best deals.
  9. Over/under bets can be very profitable in the Champions League. Because of the random nature of team selection and qualification, finding offensive and defensive matchups is easy, so make sure to use spread betting when it comes to those games.
  10. You can’t use the same rules betting on UCL as you can on the BPL. UCL is a tricky beast, and often requires a lot of background studying to be really good at. League trends often don’t matter, and clubs doing poorly in their national league having qualified for UCL the year before will often try their best to focus on a Cup to bring home. Don’t assume underdogs from current league play unless there’s a good reason.
poisson distribution soccer betting

Poisson Distribution: How to calculate winning soccer bets

Poisson Distribution is one of the most efficient ways to gauge a winner in soccer (football). When the poisson distribution system is used correctly, it can help determine the average goal scoring probability between two sides. That said, it can also be one of the more complex ways to calculate a potential winner, and it is isn’t perfect. So we’ll go over the basics here.

Poisson Distribution is based upon formulas, so if you aren’t fantastic with long division and multiplication, you might want a calculator.

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

If the above looks complicated and makes you say WTF, don’t worry. We’ll break it down for you. Basically, this is the principle formula behind the poisson distribution system, and what this formula does is it calculates the probability of the success of an event (in this case, a goal) over a specific window (in this case, a game). So let’s leave that alone for a bit and we’ll take two clubs. Since we need a window of time to gauge overall skill level, we’ll use a full season.

Related: 11 Tips: How beginner soccer punters should bet on soccer (football)

The first thing you’re going to do is deal with the total goals scored over a season. So first, divide the home teams’s goals by total games played. Then, divide the away goals by total games played. This will produce two decimal numbers for home and away strength, which then give us total attack strength for the club during the defined period.

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Next, you’ll need the number of goals conceded. There’s no math involved here, simply invert the numbers. (If the home and away strength were 1.574 and 1.195, respectively, then the goals conceded will be 1.195 and 1.574 for the goals conceded.)

Repeat this process for the away team.

Ready for Some Multiplication?

After you’ve calculated the numbers above for both teams, the answers become a little clearer. The key to remember here for the poisson distribution system is that you are not calculating a single set of probabilities, but two sets: one for the home team and one for the away team.

So the first thing to do is calculate the home team’s attack strength.

Take the number of goals scored at home over the time period (the season) by the home team and divide that number by number of home games.

After this, divide the answer by the season’s average home goals scored per game to get the home team’s Attack Strength.

Home Goals = Home Attack * Away Defense * Average No. Goals

Once this is done, repeat the process in the inverse with the away team’s numbers, calculating as:

Away Goals = Away Attack * Home Defense * Average No. Goals

This will likely produce two decimal numbers, one higher than the other. While that might be somewhat useful on the money line or 1X2 betting or asian handicapping, when using the poisson distribution system for making your soccer picks or other sports betting, that will not be useful for calculating goal probabilities.

This is the best time to introduce the Poisson Distribution Calculator. After calculating the above, you can simply plug the numbers into the calculator for the probability of each team to score a goal. By using a margin of, say, four goals, you can simply place a goal outcome (say, between 1-4) in the “random variable”, and the likelihood of a team scoring (the multiplied formula), and the calculator will issue that probability. By using the calculator with both teams up to a set number of goals, you can have a pretty good estimate in terms of highest probability in total score, and can compare it accordingly to the sports book.

One word of advice, however: soccer is unique in that a change in the narrative can completely throw numbers to the wind. Pay attention to things before you make our football tips, such as key stats that can play a major influence on impacting the score, and the game outcome.

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how to bet on soccer by football tipster and expert soccer hanidcappers

How football tipsters and expert handicappers bet on soccer

how to bet on soccer by football tipster and expert soccer hanidcappersEuropean and international football, or popularized as soccer in North America, is well known as the most popular sport in the world. Why else would it be considered ‘the beautiful game’. Watching soccer brings an excitement all on its own, especially the FIFA World Cup and other major leagues as the Champions league, Europa league, CONCAFA and more.

As popular as football, or soccer, is throughout the world, it fails to bring the kind of hype in North America as the NFL, NBA and College sports. Why?

Is it the betting attraction, the media or America just trying to differentiate itself from its European counterparts? Even though expert handicappers and mainstream sports bettors invest heavily on playing NFL picks every season, the lack of exposure of soccer lines has likely contributed to the lower interest in attracting North American betting on seasonal and major soccer games.

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