5 mistakes nfl bettors make

5 of the worst mistakes NFL football bettors make

There’s a reason that NFL betting is a billion-dollar industry: it’s profitable for oddsmakers, and most people (especially Americans) betting on the NFL treat it as a personal emotional game, especially their own free NFL picks.

That’s a money-losing proposition for most football gamblers and novice sports investors, so in this post I’ll highlight some of the worst mistakes we’ve seen NFL bettors make.

These football betting tips is a combination of what bookmakers have told us they see with some of their worst football betting players, and common themes from industry conversation. The aim with this post is that it helps you avoid potential traps in NFL betting, improve your winning NFL picks selections, and avoid some of the most often misunderstood rookie mistakes.

These football betting tips won’t make you rich, but they might keep your bankroll from going empty too early and help you improve your seasonal bankroll and sports investments.

Picking favorites
The key to every single NFL betting strategy starts exactly the same. Do you have a favorite team? Not anymore you don’t! Why? Because when you let feelings and personal preferences cloud judgment that is ultimately mathematical, you lose. Even if you win a game or two, overall you will begin a losing pattern that you can’t escape. Some sports investors find the value in 3rd parties, such as an Expert NFL handicapper who spends the time to perform the necessary research, analysis and spends the time crunching the numbers and data to find patterns, trends and other data-driven statistical insights — an unbiased approach to picking your NFL favourite pick. Read more

Don't bet on the Superbowl

Don’t bet on the NFL Super bowl if….

If you’re wagering on the Super bowl this year with no sound strategy or minimal understanding how to increase your success to win your Super bowl bets…then save your money and don’t bet on the game as I’m sure there are thousands of better ways you could spend the money. Does this sound like you?

When Super Bowl weekend arrives, you can expect that there will be lots of opportunities to make a profit on the game if you understand what you’re doing…similar with wagering on the weekly NFL picks and selections throughout the regular season. Of course, many opportunities exist because the Super Bowl is one of the most gambled games of the year– people are willing to throw money away (gambling) on what appears to be, on paper, a 50/50 chance. Then why not just flip a coin and hold your breathe, or keep is low-key and play squares at your Superbowl party (Tip: Superbowl: Best strategies for playing squares).

We, being our sports investor members, are not those people (though we like a mean game of squares as the cherry $$ on top of our big Superbowl pay day). But for those who are not a sports investor member (join for free) and perhaps a recreational or social gambler, then here are three major ways to NOT to bet on the Super Bowl!

Don’t bet with the crowd

Betting with the crowd is a great way to lose your money. Bookmakers adjust their lines to give the house a slight advantage, so even when the numbers appear to be in your favor, it’s better to start looking for better number. Read more

nfl super bowl sharp money betting

5 Tips: How Sharps profit, betting on the NFL Super Bowl

In the NFL betting markets, Sharps like big games. Why? The don’t bet like Super Bowl gamblers. Super Bowl gamblers can expect to lose record amounts of money on Super Bowl in any year because as the money goes into the pool X number of ways, which increases the loss probability exponentially. Here are five ways to avoid the noise and increase the success of winning your Super Bowl wagers this year. Read more

succesful football bettor interview

Interview: How I made 300% return on my sports betting in one season

It might seem impossible for a novice bettor, after having a few varied winning streaks to even envision how someone could hit +100% return betting on sports over a season. But experienced bettors (who apply sound strategy and ride the long term seasonal performance) know that there are things that you can (and need) do to change the way you bet on sports to turn greater profits.

The biggest change the majority of sports bettors have to make is this:  Accept that in sports investing, taking losses at the books is all part of game: if you understand and accept that, you’re already more than halfway to success.

Any professional sports bettor will tell you, there is a psychological understanding to separate emotion from the strategy. You will have winning weeks, and losing weeks, but emotions won’t dictate sound decisions. There is applicability to re-think or adjust their active betting strategy during losing streaks – but this is simply adjusting to hedge against losses and adapt to evolving trends and patterns that most data can tell indicate. Read more

NFL football sharks betting mistakes

3 big mistakes NFL Sharps make

While there are definitely always ways a sports bettor can improve his sports investment management strategy, a lot of people focus on how NFL Sharps handle their betting investments, just as many equity investors follow wealthy stock market investors as Warren Buffet or successful fund managers.

But even in sports betting, sharps make mistakes and it’s important to keep that in mind if your goal is to improve your sports betting profitability and success of your overall sports betting strategy. Read more

betting squares

Super Bowl: The best strategies for playing squares

When Super Bowl approaches, out come the prop bets: bets that aren’t really about who wins or loses, but bets on interesting details during the game.

Big events tend to make people bet-happy, and with the Super Bowl, there are unique prop bets passed around offices and friends as everyone shows off their inner football analyst and make select their Super Bowl picks and predictions.

One of the most popular of these is the game of Squares for the Super Bowl, so in this post we’ll look at some of the best ways to play Squares.

What are these “squares”, you say? If you’re new to Squares, it’s a betting competition where people try to guess the last digit of the score for both teams at the end of a given quarter, and is common for playoff games and the Super Bowl (it is played for regular games as well, but not as often). NB: This fun betting competition is much different than the football handicapper strategy, how to bet against the “squares”. Read more

3 things I've learned winning Super bowl predictions 4 out of 5 years in a row

3 things I’ve learned winning Super bowl predictions 4 out of 5 years in a row

There are a few things I’ve picked up from betting on the Super Bowl over the years and they’ve even made me some money…good money. Sure there have been failures…and those hard fails have been turned into fast learnings that quickly turned into profitable returns.

Among all the NFL football betting tips and strategies I have learned, including the top 3 mistakes made betting on the super bowl,  is that most of the assumptions people come in with when making their Super Bowl pick and wager on the big game are all wrong.

For most people, betting on the NFL or Super Bowl is a fun hobby. These social gamblers bet their money, they lose, and they leave. But if you want that money, some of your inherent assumptions have to change about betting.

For many serious sports bettors and investors, betting…or when approached as strategic investment opportunities, it is a way of life and pays their bills and adds to their investment income.

Sports investing is a serious business, so if you’re not committed to taking it serious, and instead wagering on the Super Bowl as part of your hobby, or simply seeking to make a quick buck, then there’s nothing wrong with having fun. Just be a little more serious.

Tip 1: Play smart =  Care more about your money than your team

In every Super Bowl betting pool, there are winners, and there are losers. Your goal is to not be the latter. How? Simple. Remember that when you bet on a game (or Super Bowl) that you are investing in the outcome. It also helps to look for the 3 insights that show value for Super bowl wagers.

Betting is not chest-beating with money (well, it can be) but about figuring out who has the best chance of winning. If you’re betting because you like a player, that’s a bad idea and I’ll take your bet.  Why, that player will be the target on the field.

If you’re betting on the Super Bowl because that’s your hometown team and it’s a big deal, that’s a far worse idea – and I’ll still take your bet. Why? Romanticism can cloud one’s judgment. If that’s not clear, then it’s best to not proactively invest but play defensively.

This Weeks Free NFL Picks

View all football predictions: All | NFL | College | CFL | AFL

SportTime LeftExpertGameRatingsGet Tip


Tip 2: Playing defensively is smart

When you bet defensively on the Super bowl, you should have a good reason to do so, and that good reason is that the outcome is unclear. For those of you new to betting on the Super bowl or big game events, see this other article on 5 Super bowl betting tips.

Spread betting on the Super bowl, which is the most common way to play defensively, is a good way to hedge a bet. Almost invariably, if you spread bet, you should put money on the underdog, since the pressure in terms of betting is substantially reduced. Why? Because spread betting is actually hedged betting against the favorite. With a point spread, you’re adding a second qualifier to the favorite winning– that they have to win by a certain margin. This means that if the underdog loses just beneath the favorite, the underdog loses but stays within the spread, or the underdog wins, you win in all cases.

Tip 3: Be a contrarian. Play against the crowed

Aside from the value that comes with contrarian betting strategy or betting against the squares, and the simple fact that the crowd has been wrong 8 out of 10 times in the past decade on the Super Bowl, there’s a deeper reason to avoid betting with the crowd.

All the problems described above (favoritism, vested personal interest in a team winning, lack of clear strategy) are exacerbated in the crowd.

The biggest mistake a football bettor can make is assume that they are betting against a team. They are not. They are betting against another pool of players.

Therefore betting the way that pool of players bets pretty much guarantees you will get a minimal return regardless of the result. Bet defensively, bet smart, and bet without emotion. If you do that, you will always have a better chance of a return on your investment, and you’ll find that you lose less and win more over time.

Avoid these top 3 mistakes when betting on the super bowl

The top three mistakes made when betting on the Super Bowl

The Super Bowl vibe is always an exciting time leading up just after the NFC and AFC championship game. Traditional sports media as ESPN, FoxSports and CBS Sports begin to sensationalize key players, coaches and matchups, all while influencing the publics opinion on who will win the Super Bowl, and more importantly what team is the favorite which the public sways towards with their money at online sports books.

This psychological influence from mass media, among others that we’ll get into, contribute to the top 3 mistakes most sports bettors make when betting on the Super Bowl – and which mistakes you should be aware to avoid when making your Super Bowl predictions and placing some money on the big game.

Its common knowledge your NFL handicappers, sports investors and avid recreational sports bettor will tend to either stick to the betting system or betting strategy they’ve used all season that works, or make subtle adjustments in their betting system for big events in determining their Super Bowl prediction, where the best value resides on the spread, and of course the over / under and exotic prop bets. Read more

Super bowl XLIX prediction

3 insights that show betting value for Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks

As Seattle Seahawks seek to defend their Super Bowl title against the New England Patriot in Super Bowl XLIX, sports investors, bettors and gamblers alike are seeking who offers the best value. To provide insights into the value-side, we look at a few predictive indicators that give the sports bettor the data-drive insight into the wagering on the NFL point spread and moneyline.

Before we dive into who offers greater value, this is the first year that IntelligentBettingTips.com is offering free access to all Super bowl predictions and picks. Our Super bowl record the last 5 seasons is 4 and 1 (80%), and in the last Packers vs. Seahawks and Colts vs. Patriots, we went 12 of 12 (100%) on the spread, money line and totals.
If you’ve always been interested to try IntelligentBettingtips.com, now is your chance for free. See the promo code (FREESB2015) and instructions at the bottom of this article on how to use this code and get free access for all Super bowl picks. Read more

betting banks

BETTING BANKS: 3 secret betting strategies used by professional sports bettors

Any seasoned sports investor will tell you there are a hundreds of different sports gambling strategies and betting systems used across the globe across a variety of sports as NFL football to European football to horse racing.

When a sports investor applies a betting strategy to his investment portfolio, he’s not talking about a strategy that involves gambling on a game via a sports pick determined by a flip of a coin or listening to ESPN’s Monday night football predictions.

The sports investor is talking about a betting strategy or investment strategy that is designed to see an initial investment as his bankroll, grow over time while minimizing risk, and do so at a rate that is better than a similar risk/reward investment, such as the equity markets on Wall Street. Thus the key goal of the sports investors betting strategy is to minimize risk, and attain a profitable rate of return….over time. Read more