Most seasoned CFB handicappers and sports data analysts will tell you college football bowl games is among one of the easiest times to profit on the sport.
Year after year the online sportsbooks pay special attention to key events as the NCAA bowl games, among too the NCAA final four and the NFL super bowl.
The experienced college football bettor or investor knows this, and have shown to pivot their betting strategies and their CFB bowl predictions on the bowl games as they’ve historically seen the performance run in the favour of the dogs.
Read between the lines and you’ll find NCAA bowl contests is niche market for sports investors and bettors to understand what and where the public money and opinion is flowing on the games — and then do the precise opposite.
Taking selective opposite positions on the CFB bowl games is a common investment strategy also used in the equity markets (stock markets), as a result of the mass psychological and emotional influences it has on the publics opinion, and where the public put their money….while ignoring the fundamentals (also see 9 out of 10 bettors make these football betting mistakes).
This investment strategy is known as contrarian investing, and in the sports betting market the contrarian betting strategy popular among Sharps to manipulate the public opinion to profit, especially during NCAA bowl betting and contests.
The simple KPI (key performance indicator) to the contrarian betting strategy for CFB bowl games is to find out what the public is doing, and take the opposite position. Sports investor members at IntelligentBettingTips.com is one great source for this data as IBT provides members one of the largest pools of public or consensus prediction data on CFB, NFL and a variety of other major betting sports as NBA, NCAAB, Horses, European and International football and more.
While IBT shows the public opinion data, and in some cases the historical performance of the public opinion on specific teams and sports, a complimentary source is Sports Insights who provide additional analytical data on match ups.
A contrarian betting strategy for NCAA bowl games can be a great opportunity for sports bettors to make up for earlier losses in the season, as well as boost their college football bankroll.
Applying the contrarian betting strategy to college football bowl games can be easier said then done. Yes you can get the public sentiment in your IntelligentBettingTips.com account, but the other analytical layer is how the online sportsbooks are balancing the action on both sides of the game.
Obviously the sportsbook will adjust the lines to lower the risk on their end and attract action to each side. But those sports investors who monitor this along with the early public sentiment data on the games can time this accordingly to take full advantage.
College football bowl games have historically attracted more action than regular games in most years. And the avid sports bettor or investor understands that when the betting environment changes like the climate, its important to re-evaluate their CFB betting strategy and make adjustments as necessary – as in the case of a contrarian betting strategy – which is among the top 3 strategies Sharps use in a variety of sports beyond just CFB.
Why is the Contrarian Betting Strategy for CFB Bowl Games so Profitable?
In certain CFB bowl games, and certainly in other sports, when over 70% of the sports betting action is on one side, its good indicator the public sentiment has overvalued one side.
Online sportsbooks will adjust these CFB lines to attract action on the other side, but prior to the sportsbooks adjustment there is a contrarian value on taking the underdog.
Contrarian betting for CFB bowl games and other sports has statistically proven to be a profitable football betting strategy on major sporting events.
For obvious reasons why this is more appropriate for the big games (major media hype), there is far greater public attention on these games due to national televised games, influence from invested-interests from major media outlets and ESPN college football sports betting system, Twitter and other content distribution channels that proliferate our inboxes and influence our decisions….to name a few.
For those reasons above is why betting against the pubic on big bowl games and major sporting events can be so profitable. Statistical research from sports analytics firms even shows that when one team is taking at least 80% of the bets, the other team wins ATS 53.2% of the time, and when the other team is the underdog, the figure increases to 56%.
Win rates as 53% and 56% may not seem like much, but this is viewpoint that separates long terms sports investors and profitable sports bettors from the rest, and why 90% of sports gamblers lose (video). You only need to win 52.4% of your sports wagers to turn a profit, which also includes the ‘vig’ or ‘juice’ you spent at the books.
The logic why betting on college football bowl games can be so profitable is rather straightforward to understand. When the public (who are not investors or avid sports bettors) get behind a particular team for their personal or emotional reasons, the oddsmakrs will adjust the betting lines to attract more action on the other side to mitigate the risk.
The new spread tends to sway far in favor of the unpopular team, and those who bet on teams who received at least 80% of the bets would have profited six in the last eight CFB seasons.
When the media hypes up a key CFB bowl game, and the social sentiment builds, creates the contrarian opportunities. Applying the contrarian betting strategy for bowl games won’t work every time, and like any sports investor understands, profit takes time.
But it’s the predictable nature of influencing the publics opinion to ignore the data and the expert CFB handicappers who perform the statistical analysis.
However most casual sports bettors get betting against the public wrong. They ignore the patience it requires and consistently bet against the public. If it were that easy, we’d all be doing it. But through using a good sports statistical service, or a reputable college football handicappers who’s methodology and approach adjusts to the climate of college football and bowl games, the sports bettor can obtain greater confidence in their betting and investing decisions.
The right approach to betting on CFB bowl games and applying a betting against the public strategy such as contrarian, is to take the time to track the market sentiment. What side is the public opinion taking?
Watch the lines at the online sports books and how are the sports books adjusting the lines as the public money flows in – noting too the timing when most public bettors lay down on the game. While bettors may bet on the CFB bowl game within a 24 to 48 hour period, the public sentiment data can give you a good early indicator well in advance to where they my be putting their money before the books need to adjust the lines.
Remember, the majority of public money on CFB bowl games and contests tend to back the favorites. And the historical the unpredictability of these bowl games have shown the underdogs to cover more frequently than not.
Thus you can see why and where there is value on CFB bowl games, when the mass injection of public money is put on one side, it can create the contrarian value on the other, and as the lines move the Sharps and whale sports investors will swoop in to take advantage.
A closing tip to remember if you’re betting on any college football this season, or a CFB bowl game or contest, is that any football betting system you apply will take patience and consistency to profit over time.
There is no one perfect absolute football betting strategy that applies to all. The climates change in any sport – from pre-season to the first few weeks of regular season to major event games as CFB bowl games or NFL Super Bowl and playoffs.
Understanding this and re-valuating strategy if any betting strategy adjustments are required is a must, just as the best investors do in the equity markets when the investment climate turns.