There are plenty of college football betting strategies to consider for your college picks, but as most sports bettors and gamblers sway from their betting strategy and betting systems, and end up consistently making a few simple and costly mistakes when betting football totals on college games.
As we’re not full swing into the midpoint of the college football season, we’ll cover 7 mistakes betting on college football totals. Once you get familiar with these, have a look at this weeks college football picks and predictions covered by expert football handicappers, and the social sentiment opinion on this weeks college football games and the totals.
1. Media Influence on College Football
One area I feel far to strongly about and advocate constantly to our sports investor members is to not buy into all the hype. Far to many NCAA football bettors get brainwashed into the all the media coverage that is accessible everywhere you look. What I coin as ESPN’s college betting system is one good example.
The media is all about viewership, fans, followers…aka eyeballs. They’re there to sell stories and in many cases their football predictions. Whatever the latest news worthy story is they aim to be the first to cover it and provide their opinion that slants the public opinion
You don’t have to look to far to watch how the online sportsbooks as Bodog or Bovada, Sportsbook, or Pinnacle react to the flow of public money. If you could chart on the social sentiment data from the top media sources and public, and overlay it with the sportsbooks shifts in line movement, you’ll likely see a common patter.
And just remember, if you’ve ever invested into the stock market, as yourself where did you get your last tip from? Did you watch some investment analyst cover a junior mining company on BNN or crazy Jim Kramers mad money hot stock picks. You have then been witness to see the price jump (due to public brain washing from media hype), only to just as quickly see the tock tank as the fundamentals sink in.
Same applies to the media and college football when selecting your college picks. The betting public buys into the hype, the odds and totals then adjust to reflect this hype. And where is the root cause of it all start? The media.
If you buy into the hype around college football predictions from the media without vetting your own research or research from an expert college football handicapper, then you’re just going to make bad betting decisions.
2. Time of Possession
A common mistake when betting college football totals is not thinking about time of possession. Many college bettors focus on the positives of the offenses when handicapping college football totals.
I admit, while that is important, so there is another key issue to remember – if does not matter how good the offense is if they do not have the ball.
Its a given golden rule that is neglected by most sports bettors who wager on college football that their own betting system won’t show them. If the other teams offense is tight on the ball control, the offense won’t get as much time to put the points on the board, versus an opposition who tends to throw more than they run it.
This style of play will obviously have a big impact on any totals of a game.
3. Early & Late Coaching Style
Considering the coaching style plays a strong influence when considering to bet on football totals. Early on in the game it may be quite evident how unmatched one team is over the other, all due to the common tendencies of the coaches strategy.
Does the coach prefer to keep the plays going hard and fast to the final whistle, or prefer to take the foot off the gas if they have a comfortable lead and don’t want to put more points up on the board. The coaching style of the coach can have a big difference on the totals.
4. Historical Statistics
Its unbelievable how many college gamblers and football bettors I’ve talked to who are tunnel visioned to only look at the recent statistics, and neglect the historical.
There are a number of reasons to cover why looking at the historical is crucial, as well as the recent, but if there is one key reason for this to share with you, its due to the influence of how short term performance – whether good or bad – will influence the sports bettors decisions.
For example, an NCAA football team may be predicted to lose this week because they could have been easily struggling to score in the last two weeks. But does that an accurate reflection on their average? Notably the same applies to expert handicappers performance – its a given they won’t predict all their college football games correctly, let alone a sports bettors win all their games. There are rough patches both handicappers, sports bettors and college football teams go through – but how does it affect their long term performance? Remember in the world of sports investing, you only need to win over 52.4% of your games to turn a profit.
See the video on why 90% of sports bettors lose to see an example how 52.4% using a compounded approach can turn a $1,000 bankroll into a six figures with this key magic number in mind.
5. The Impact of Defense
A good offense, is a good defense, but the popularity slides to much attention on the offense. Many college football bettors neglect the importance and impact of a solid defense when betting college football totals.
Public and social sentiment data, as well as the online sportsbooks, show that the betting public can’t get enough of the offense in college football.
The offense is seduced far to quickly like the girl at the bar when the lights turn on at closing time. The public loves this and particularly an offense that can put a lot of points on the board through the air.
Regardless how well the offense performs, college bettors think that that offense is going to have just as the same performance. So a key takeaway here for betting on college football totals is if the defense is a particularly good pass defense unit, then the offense most likely won’t have as good of a passing day than they could, which will have a big impact on your college football predictions on betting on the football totals.