We ran a social experiment last season with a sample of our sports investors who weighted over 50% of their betting portfolio on Major League Baseball. Our hypothesis aimed to evaluate these 50 members (members of IntelligentBettingTips.com) MLB betting strategies, techniques and systems, and uncover the common winning and losing betting tactics amongst them. (related: 3 tips for betting MLB playoffs, versus regular season).
The outcome of this was quite the reverse, and produced insights into some common areas that were thought to be applied, but missed, and where data-driven betting systems and predictive analysis shows a trends of winning patterns. Simply from identifying this insight and sharing back to this pool of 50 members, after one full baseball season we surveyed them and found a strong majority had achieve greater profits in MLB than over the last 5 years, and in many case double (and more) their baseball betting bankroll.
The result is what I’ll share with are what I consider the 5 forgotten MLB betting tips that can boost your bankroll and increase your MLB profits. While some may seem like common sense, it was also a surprise to us when these were revealed among a number of others as forgotten or misplaced betting strategies or principles that the data will endorse.
It’s a no brainer that MLB betting isn’t as big as NFL or basketball betting, and yet America’s Pastime has one of the strongest following in sports betting. But for those who wager on MLB, knowing how to do it correctly is paramount. Even for the novice bettor who thinks he knows it all, tends to fall victim to many of the most common betting mistakes (aka greed). As any baseball bettor will tell you, it is very, very easy to lose money on Major League Baseball and why many sports investors are spread their betting portfolio across multiple sports, tend to keep their bankroll ratio low on MLB relative to other sports. And because of this, many sports bettors and even investors don’t realize that a few simple strategies have shown statistically to help ensure that you don’t lose your money altogether, and turn profits.
Don’t Overdo It
The biggest mistake a bettor or investor can make is betting heavily on favorites and betting outside an assigned limit.
Major League Baseball is one of the most tempting leagues to bet on. There are literally hundreds of ways to lose all your money. One of the most fun ways is the World Series bet: betting on the favorite to win the World Series at the beginning of the season. Betting on the World Series at the beginning of the season is amusement. It shouldn’t be part of a sports betting arsenal. Consider reading this post on Sharps use these 5 hidden MLB World Series betting strategies if you’re a Word Series bettor. Avoiding certain bets will help restrict your limit later.
Betting Moneyline and Run Line
The main focus of any MLB bettor should be on the moneyline and the run line (similar to spread betting in the NFL or puckline for NHL). This will allow you to limit losses specifically to outcomes. Doing research on both teams is helpful in determining outcomes, and while you don’t always have to limit bets on the favorite, as always, watching for more profitable underdogs comes into play here. This is why anyone using their own MLB betting system to produce their weekly MLB picks, need to take into account the key statistics in MLB handicapping. But if you have a good grasp of the teams at hand, betting on the moneyline or a conservative bet on the run line will limit losses.
Pay Attention to Streaks
MLB and NHL are among the two top sports where paying attention to streaks is critical, from a statistical data-analysis view, whether hitting or pitching streaks, in dealing with your baseball wagers.
These players are motivated and have a psychological advantage of appearing as though they have the wind at their back. Because of this, not taking a streak into account during a particular game is counter-intuitive. Use the information you have on both teams to make an informed judgment and allow any knowledge of streaks that you may have between the two teams to accurately mitigate your risk.
Follow the Bullpen
A simple statistic: strong bullpens win games. Statistically, if you are dealing with a team with a strong bullpen, they are the likely favorite. You can mitigate risk, even against a streak, by lowering expectations against a strong bullpen, or betting on the team with the stronger bullpen.
Streaks, home field advantage, and overall stats come into play when dealing with two bullpens that are relatively equal. While we looked at more recent data, on file we say that a quick analysis of 2010 numbers when it came to the bullpen– or better, the 2006 numbers– will be very educational in terms of making a profit from the strongest bullpen.
Fade Public Teams & Games
This is where the global social consensus MLB predictions become highly valuable for our members. Some of our top sports investors will use the public data in their contrarian betting strategy to take advantage of the emotional and highly influential opinions of the public perception.
While we wouldn’t immediately dismiss public teams such as the Yankees or the Red Sox, it’s important to note that much of their charm is historical, and not necessarily based on the specific season. In fact, it’s sometimes more profitable to ignore or bet against such teams. Many years, both of those teams had losing seasons on the money line. It’s important, especially with MLB, to not bet with your heart but with the numbers in front of you. But statistically, more often than not, those numbers don’t favor public teams.
While there were other patterns and betting tactics we found helped boost members MLB bankrolls, the above 5 were among the most common betting tips that were often known but forgotten, or simply a lack of diligent application in their betting.