While there are definitely always ways a sports bettor can improve his sports investment management strategy, a lot of people focus on how NFL Sharps handle their betting investments, just as many equity investors follow wealthy stock market investors as Warren Buffet or successful fund managers.
But even in sports betting, sharps make mistakes and it’s important to keep that in mind if your goal is to improve your sports betting profitability and success of your overall sports betting strategy.
Here are some ways that even NFL sharps can completely ruin a decent overall strategy — and a couple of these can even be career-enders, so if you see yourself below, its time to retool your nil betting strategy.
Scenario 1: Getting Lazy on the Picks
One of the biggest mistakes that can happen to any football bettor, from recreation to expert level betting, is treating football games differently — getting in on big games and paying less attention to smaller ones, which might produce better returns.
While this can happen to any sports bettor (in fact, the house’s strategy is actually partial based on it) this is a problem that can become almost a career-ender for a sharp. If you don’t have a decent pocketbook strategy, you’ll lack the balance that you need when your NFL picks and results don’t go your way. And the results will always end the same way: fighting to cover your losses from the online sports books or your bookie. The solution to this is simple: do not become reliant on single games and improve your focus on data collection and analysis.
Scenario #2: Getting Attached to Misread Data
If you start noticing certain aspects of your betting system is failing, it’s time to reassess how successful they are as a betting system to begin with.
Yes, taking losses are all part of the game (you only need to win more than 54% to profit), but you should make notes on every loss to see if there’s a common pattern, trend or issue you’ve been missing, and isolate from your wins.
After you’ve checked to see what common thread can be found, apply them to your wins and see how well they stack up. If you notice a win/loss pattern that explains it, apply it to your game uniformly to improve your numbers.
The concept is fail…fail fast and learn the insights why you failed. Failure is not the loss, but the error you made for the reason why you made the pick – whether it’s a data point, player, coach, location, etc. Look for the patterns as data will tell a story.
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Scenario 3: Getting Lost in Side Bets
While using side bets on your NFL picks (even free nfl picks) is a good maneuver as part of a general overall betting strategy, if you start “relying on the side bets”, there’s a good chance that there’s something wrong with other parts of your betting system you need to start looking at.
If you don’t, you could find yourself in the same scenario as in scenario #1: fighting an uphill battle against the house– which any Sharp looking from outside the box knows is a losing strategy.
If your strategy is suddenly more dependent on your side bets it’s time to reassess what you’re doing altogether. The solution to this is once again to review your betting model and the data points that make the system. Finding what’s missing in your football system is the key to improving your balances overall, and that is more important than how much you are spending.
While some professional bettors make a career on side betting, the real question is whether or not you want that to be an overall football betting strategy or whether you’re compensating for losses elsewhere. If you’re in the latter camp, get uncomfortable with making changes now before it costs you much more later in the football season.