In the NFL betting markets, Sharps like big games. Why? The don’t bet like Super Bowl gamblers. Super Bowl gamblers can expect to lose record amounts of money on Super Bowl in any year because as the money goes into the pool X number of ways, which increases the loss probability exponentially. Here are five ways to avoid the noise and increase the success of winning your Super Bowl wagers this year.
1. Spread Betting: Follow the Numbers, Take a Step Back, and Push.
One of the beautiful things about spread betting (and most dangerous) in NFL football is that you are betting not simply on a win, but a win by a certain amount of points.
Because of this, the bookie can use the spread to protect itself from a likely win situation by making the amount that they win by somewhat less realistic.
Tip: So the key to remember here is that spread betting is a defensive maneuver, and you have to use that knowledge to your advantage. If covering the spread looks too good to be true, it usually is, and you can profit by betting the underdog.
2. High money lines are basically gambling.
When the house is sure of a winner (and when the crowd and the house are in agreement) the moneyline bet is probably the worst bet possible. Betting $250 to make $100 sounds like a great idea, but the reason it’s so high is to mitigate loss.
Tip: There is always a possibility it can go a different way, so it’s safer to bet in ways you have more control. Of course, if your bankroll can handle it, such a high assumed win is fairly safe, even if you won’t make much from it.
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3. Defense determines the Over/Under.
When dealing with the over/under, remember that this number is almost always determined by defence (we’re talking total points, not the winner). The best handicappers and tipsters in the market understand this and will play part of their super bowl picks on the Totals to hedge the risk.
The house will always set a number somewhat outside the bounds of reality when dealing with a pair heavily offensive or defensive teams, and so a high/over under indicates a mismatch of offence and defence.
Tip: If this is not the case, bet the under.
4. Squares are like bingo for gamblers.
Unless you have done a fairly good overall analysis of every play during the NFL season for both teams and are willing to run through a simulation of the entire game before it happens AND bet money that it will play out exactly as you say, squares are a great way to lose money.
Tip: The best way to profit is to watch other people lose their money, and ask them how they’re betting on the spread. Then bet the other way.
5. Don’t waste time on prop bets.
Prop bets are more of a fun hobby than anything else, and should never be used in a serious betting system, such as the case of betting squares at your Super bowl party. For example, the coin toss is currently at 26-24 tails (meaning tails is at 52%, almost near perfectly an unpredictable result.) While some really love guessing the length of the national anthem, prop bets are designed for guessing, which is why no one would expect to make serious money on them. They’re fun, but they aren’t for serious betting.