Countless sports investors in North America look forward to college football season as it’s a key time of year where investors and bettors alike see the lucrative value in betting college football totals.
While it’s a lucrative sport for those who understand the football betting strategies and play their college picks, the majority of punters and gamblers make common and consistent mistakes that destroy their bankroll early in the season.
Now that college football has recently kicked off, it’s timely to cover these common college football betting mistakes before selecting your college football picks and betting on the totals at your favourite online sportsbook.
Note: If you’re seeking this weeks NCAAF college football predictions, see what the latest college picks are available from the premium Intelligent tips, over 20 expert college football handicappers the largest global consensus of college football predictions.
Here are seven mistakes to avoid when betting on college football totals:
1. Ignoring Coaches Insight of Opponents
Whats most appealing in both NCCA college basketball and NCCA college football, is the variety of different coaching styles and players. For this reason alone is one of the main reasons why the sport bettor or investor should seek out an expert college handicapper who specializes in just college – and not diversified through the year with other sports. With the volume of teams, matchups, coaching styles and plays, a key performance indicator statistically speaking is how both teams have matched up in the past and the coaching styles applied to those games.
When making your college picks for the football season, you’ll need to adjust from each coaches style, something that most college football bettors and gamblers neglect. However, as college football overs much opportunity to profit, we tend to see the sports investors mimick the attributes we see from Sharp bettors who invest in college football, and knowing the coaches style is a strong performance indicator when they make their college football predictions.
Now the public is aware of the different styles between each, and in most cases if the teams offer a unique match up in both coaching styles. Though refer to the latter points that many college football bettors make regarding following the hype and popular teams.
A key takeaway from this point however is determining if the coaching staff has some history and familiarity with who they’re playing. Had the coach or offense manager play for the team in the past, or did the assistant play against the team in a former job or in past games with the team? Take into account the coaching staffs familiarity with the other team, as this alone can be a good indicator where the strengths will lay when making your weekly college football pick.
2. Ignoring Time of Ball Possession
Most football bettors concentrate on the strengths of the offense when handicapping college football totals. Yes its important to watch this, though its meaningless if they don’t have the ball. Think about it – if the offense is slow and predictable with their ball control, if they run the ball to much into the ground they lose the opportunity to put points on the board, vs the opposition control on passing and quickly moving the ball down the field.
The key takeaway for watching time of possession before making your college picks is that this will have a significant impact on the total. So think about its impact on the pace of the game. Review the history of the teams ball control before your making your picks, especially the historical match ups against the opposition.
3. Ignoring Injuries
College football bettors and college handicappers take big consideration when key players are injured and out of the game to influence their betting decisions, but they rarely take into account those key assist players. Assist players are those lessor players who may not put points on the board, but have big impact on the field to assist or influence the play and the key players runs to the line of scrimmage or goal line. This applies to both offense, and defense players, and could impact the total – especially for key plays the team favours to score on the offense, or hold the yards on offense.
4. Over Compensating the Over
Statistically speaking, history has showing the betting public has shown some clear and predictable prediction and betting patterns. Not just in their college football predictions for their fantasy leagues, but also in their football picks at the online sportsbooks when watching the money flow, and in other sports betting as soccer, MLB, NBA and NFL football.
The public has a tendency to bet the over and their favorites. See for yourself in the largest public college football predictions and consensus data (note – this page covers both expert college football handicappers, the premium intelligent tips college picks and the public consensus college football predictions. Click on the global consensus tab to get the public NCAAF college predictions).
The public will bet far less on the underdog or opposing team than they do on betting the over and their favorites. Sportsbook oddsmarks know this, and when the hype builds or public betting loads up their bets on the books, you’ll see the online sportsbooks adjust their lines accordingly for NCAA college games.
Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of times and reasons to invest your bankroll on the over. Even the best of them get caught, as many college football handicappers catch themselves throughout the NCAAF season handicapping heavily on the over the majority of the time.
This is a good trigger too to check your college football betting strategy and your football betting system that you’re not getting sucked into the same traps the online sportsbooks set for the public. The result may end up being you’re making too many low value bets, which can play into your sports betting portfolio strategy; but here is a balance between low value bets and missing out on the larger margins to be made if you catch them.
Don’t get sucked into the hype. I covered this in another post 2 tips Sharp NFL bettors don’t want you to know. Your FOX sports, ESPN and other sport media are all about viewership. If you take their advice and use it on your college picks, you might as hell take Harvey Levins NFL betting advice on TMZ (hey – I respect your efforts Harvy – and the day you get +55% – call us).
The media is all about telling the story – the most juicy stories of individual college picks and college football predictions, whether they be true of inflated half truths. The same applies to equity investing and listening to your business week coverage of the next best penny stock.
Taking the media verbatim, you going to get some teams that get far more hype than others, which the public will follow, and the money included. If you cross-referenced key media announcements and American facing online sportsbooks, sometimes you’ll see a pattern of odds shifting as the online sportsbook adjust the lines to accommodate the volume of wagers flowing onto one teams side.
The key take away is that is ok to watch the media coverage and their insights – but don’t read into it to deeply without ensuring you’ve done your homework to validate your NCAAF college picks or predictions. Expert college handicappers who’ve been around long enough with a track record to back it up understand this, and take advantage of this too in when handicapping their college picks. If you know how to use it to your advantage, its a good arsenal to have in your college betting strategy to make intelligent betting and investing decisions.
6. Coaching Performance
Far to many college football bettors do not take into consideration the football teams coaching performance. This is has particular strong weight in your football prediction selection when the college football game is anticipated to be one-sided.
Some college football coaches just don’t drive their teams to continue getting points on the board if they don’t need them, whereas other NCAAF coaches don’t slow down in their intensity until the whistle blows.
7. The Role of Defense
Monitor the public consensus college predictions data in your IntelligentBettingTips.com account, or the public money flow at the online sportsbooks and you’ll see the public favors offensive team. But yet is not surprise when applying the football betting strategy of betting against the squares or against the favorites, the edge is on your side. Statistically betting against the public has shown the edge.
If you’re running your research for your ncaaf picks, you’ll find the betting money will typically flow to the offensive team, especially if they throw the majority of their points, vs. running. Regardless of the match up, the public will follow the previous game performance especially if the offense scored most of their points in the air and yet they still ignore the oppositions team performance for on covering defensive passing strategies. You can bet this will have a big impact on the totals.
College handicappers who make their college picks around this key performance indicator, statistically will show strong performance on the totals.
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