We’d like to all think they’re just good guys trying to help you out and no strings attached. And in some cases in the forums you’ll find a few genuine Joes just doing that. Are they sharps who are making the big profits at the books? No. These guys are generally your guy next door who has had a good run or profitable season and an active member of the sports forum community.
So why then do you see some many free picks offered everywhere? Here’s why:
Typical marketing tactic employed by handicapper services either through the forums, directly on their website or through an email subscription. They goal is to plant the seed by giving away a few picks for free that should have a strong or decent probability of winning.
Once these picks play out and the stars align for these higher probability winning picks, those sports bettors who followed or even played these begin to see credibility build with the individual or handicapper. Makes sense, build creditability and trust, and the rest will follow.
The angle commonly played here is the free picks tend to have the higher chance of winning, with lower spread involved. In other words your potential profit is much lower. But once these games come in as winners, or at least the majority do over time, the handicapper will pitch the ‘premium sports picks’.
The premium sports picks or predictions, are pitched to the sports bettor as the low frequency but high value picks where the win probability remains strong on games where key opportunities have been discovered. You’ll see this done often for NFL, MLB, NBA picks and soccer tips. These leads into handicapper services pitch marketing ploys about having access to exclusive syndicates with insider information, or identifying timely spreads where lines have shifted, or not yet shifted, in the direction of the opportunity.
So are these sports picks really free? Underneath no they’re not. You’ve either given your email address (which you should value as gold) where they will send you auto pilot winning sales messages daily to stay top of mind, grab your attention with profits you missed out, and special bonuses and offers to up-sell, cross-sell or lure you into their paid services.
So in short the free picks in this respect is a sales process. Lure you in to build creditability over time via forums, social posts, email, etc., which is fine, but know that the majority of free picks have a baseline reason behind why they’re free (as I described above).
If you can see through the smoke, you’ll begin to see why free picks aren’t necessarily free in this respect. It’s sales and marketing.
The only truly free sports picks you should look for are those from reputable services that let you trial their full services. This will give you the full experience of all levels and ratings of picks they offer their customers. And if their sports betting system or model works, and proper bankroll and betting strategy is applied (which unfortunately most of you don’t), then you should hope to see the value the free or trial access provides you to continue with a paid service.
So why don’t most expert handicapper services offer full services for free on trial? This one is a double edge sword answer. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. And unfortunately its a numbers game. As I mentioned above, most sports bettors do not apply the essential ingredient to winning their sports predictions. They either do not apply prudent bankroll management, or/and they don’t apply sound betting strategy…both ‘over time’.
The majority of sports bettors will seek the win. If they win, they’re happy. If they lose, they blame the sports picks services that provided it, or they view the sports betting system or model as bogus.
A profitable sports investor and gambler will understand profitability will come with time, and astute dedication to their bankroll strategy and management. Getting the winning picks is just one side of it…albeit and important side to it.
And this is where the cross roads collide and where more expert handicapper services either need to better understand their audience, or approach. Are their services suitable for primarily sports gamblers, or are they targeting sports investors, and at what betting or investment educational level is the audience familiar.
Many expert handicapper services don’t want to spend the time or energy educating, guiding and managing their clients on the winning ingredients to win. And the same can be said for many sports gamblers who don’t want to spend the time to learn this area. And this is why the majority of sports bettors will lose over the short and medium term.
2. Selling Your Back-end
Most sports bettors don’t realize it, sports handicappers who cannot turn enough revenue from their sports prediction services, they’ll turn to the sports books for help and make money from you on the back-end.
Like the spider to the fly, they lure you into their web of free picks. Heck, even give you the premium NFL picks for free. Similar to the above the 80% rule applies where 80% (and probably more likely 90%) of handicappers in the prediction/picks market will do aggressive marketing to get your email or sign up for an account to get what you see is something for free.
You give them your email address and the handicapper sends you free picks daily or weekly. You sign up for an account, and you login every week for the free picks. You visit the sports betting forums that give away threads and threads of free picks, and you return each week and submerge yourself within their community.
So how does the handicappers make their money if they’re giving it all away for free? They’re nice guys, right? Do this the next time you’re reading your free picks email, or online browsing a websites free picks, and check to see how many or how prominent the sportsbook advertising is positioned.
You’ll likely see or even receive special deposit bonuses and offers from the NFL handicappers or other experts on behalf of a new sportsbook each week. And this is where the money is found. X% of free picks subscriber or visitors will click on the sportsbook banners or take up the offer of a $100 deposit bonus with the sportsbook. And for playing at the sportsbook, the sports handicapper is earning a CPA (cost per acquisition) commission or revenue share from your betting activity. And remember, its not just one. You deposit to play and win or lose, you’ll either have money creditted back to your account to lay down on another football game or use in the sportsbooks poker room or casino, or the sportsbook will attempt to win you back to deposit and play again with another special deposit bonus with a ridiculous roll over attached to it before you can withdrawal it.
In the end, or in the back-end, the sports handicapper got you with the free picks, but made up for it with the commission or revenue share he’s earning from the one, or two or three different sportsbooks you were referred to play from the handicappers services.
So are free sports picks really free? Think again the next time you decide to take a free sports pick. Either you’re getting lured into premium up-sell (which nothing is wrong with that as long as your profitable), or you’re feeding the cappers kids by signing up through them at recommended sportsbook. But then again, if you’re going to bet or wager online, why not do it through a handicapper referral as you’ll get more bonus and incentive offers than if you signed up organically with the sports book – unless of course you become a high value whale or roller and they’ll buy your play.
This post gives an introductory understanding of the true value of free sports picks. In a future post I’ll cover more insider deals how money is made through free picks by their providers and the pros and cons of when and why you should, and should not take advantage of free sports pick offers.
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