As we get into the final weeks of the NFL season, it’s a good idea to take a brief moment to remember where stupid money flows and bet against it.
Remember there are a lot of ways to screw up at sports betting. The three destructive areas I’ll cover momentarily, are basically the worst– the sort of mentalities that lead even a novice Sharp or handicapper to run from a football game mumbling to himself about fate of all humanity.
No, this is not a reference to Homer Simpson– he actually had a Sharp in his corner during the classic episode Lisa the Greek— but the constant desire for one’s home team to win.
This becomes less pronounced during the Super Bowl (unless, of course, there’s a home team playing in the crowd) but it is the worst kind of way to bet– and unfortunately, it’s also the most common. Wishing for your team to win the Super Bowl or #NFLSunday, and knowing your team’s real probability of winning are two very different things, and unfortunately the passion that the game incites inspires stupid betting.
Bettors bet with their heads. Gamblers bet with their hearts. So the biggest red flag is to hear the words “you’re from City X– how can you bet against them?” You can take instant comfort in the fact that you are talking to a person that has no clue what they are doing.
The ESPN Guy
Oooohhhh. The ESPN Guy is somewhat better than the Homer bettor, but not by much. He definitely sounds better, when he quotes a television pundit who has an opinion. However, most television pundits and talking heads are not professional bettors.
In most cases, people won’t even remember when they are wrong (which is a lot of the time – until now…read on!) So the ESPN Guy sounds very authoritative, like an expert. Unfortunately, the so-called expert or media tipsters he’s usually quoting isn’t an expert.
I’ve edited this point here – ignore the ESPN Guy, because not only does he not know what he is talking about, he provides the valuable service of spreading stupid money out past the cable television viewer base. Why the edit? While the statement holds true, you’ll find a new area in IntelligentBettingTips.com member area (login or sign up for free) , that aggregates the top North American media pundits and talking heads weekly NFL predictions and college football picks. Inside you’ll see not just the ESPN Guy, but also FOX Sports, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, and over 100 other media pundit weekly football picks.
We take it one step further and go beyond just showing you their weekly NFL and NCAAF predictions, but track their weeks performance across win rates and simulated profit for money line and point spread.
Again – the latter is true. Ignore the ESPN Guys, UNLESS you use this new tool to see the ESPN Guys true weekly and seasonal track record (maybe he’s killing it, or maybe you want to fade his picks) on the money line and against the spread.
Sports bettors use this football information to their advantage by either
- A) taking the top leaders of the media pundit leaderboard (over 100 pundits), and playing their weekly NFL selections, or
- B) taking the worst of the pundits on the leaderboard, and fading their weekly NFL or NCAAF predictions.
- C) taking the consensus of all media pundits (over 100 of them), or fading the consensus.
Sharps use data to win their games. They don’t use heart, and they don’t use random opinions from celebrities on television, UNLESS the data informs you otherwise.
Risk! It! All!
The final type of football betting mentality that needs to be soundly ignored when discussing football betting is bravado betting. This is the sort of betting that is often considered by the crowd to be “High Roller betting” (you’ll often hear “I’m putting it all on Arizona!” during bets like these) but are often what can actually be referred to as “Doghouse Gambling”– if the person loses their single bet, they’re in the doghouse.
The biggest problem with this sort of betting is that there is no nuance. There is no good reason to put all your money on a single score or spread. In fact, during the regular season one should spread their bets, and during the postseason, there is plenty of useful prop bets and different types of game bets to use that one does not have to “Risk! It! All!”– because that’s a sure way to lose all your money.
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