3 football punter mistakes

The three worst mistakes football (soccer) punters make

While there are a lot of ways things can go wrong betting on football, smart punters know how to face the odds and still produce a marginal overall return. The intelligent bettor doesn’t make the mistake of falling for one or two trends, and using all the information at hand, preferably as close to game day as possible, will make for smarter punting overall.

Treating derby games differently than season games
Applying non-overwhelming historical trends to current football seasons is always a mistake. Unfortunately, it’s a mistake that is all too common with punters. Why? Because the lure of a narrative is almost always irresistible. And that is a very big problem, especially when you begin seeing things in terms of fan bases as opposed to teams. Read more

football tipsters top tips for punters

10 tips football punters need to know when betting on Euro football

There are a few key tips punters should never forget when it comes to betting on the Premier League and the Champions League.

European and international football is a huge game to bet on and among the most popular with football tipsters and their football tips, and there are a lot of profit-making opportunities that abound if you know how to look for them. Besides studying the statistics, players, and coaches a great deal, here are some of the important football tips to consider whenever you’re looking to profit on the football markets.

  1. Home, Sweet Home. Home field advantage is one of the major trends to focus on when betting the Premier League. Most teams have more than 50% of their wins at home, and playing on their home pitch is what makes all the difference. Keep that in mind whenever you’re selecting your football tips and how an Expert football tipster performs with his tips.
  2. In the Premier League, its all about trends. While some clubs may have up-and-down seasons, on average by the midseason break you can get a pretty good idea of which way clubs are trending down the table. Betting against losing teams (that are not at the point of relegation yet) is a decent strategy to look for bargains, but make sure to do your homework about their state and that of the opposition.
  3. How clubs play in the Champions League usually does NOT determine their league play. Unlike the Premier League (and most major national football leagues) the Champions League is a huge mix of play styles and different types of match-ups you may not be used to. It’s smart to look at how clubs fared against other styles within their league, but it won’t be the most clear comparison unfortunately. A lot of calculation will be based on relative team strength, and strong KPI to watch for in your football betting system.
  4. Follow matchups, not national leagues. Put away any biases about one country being better than another in the Champions League. While one can make some general observations and countries often have multiple wins in a row, that can change at any given moment, so watching a particular club’s trajectory based on what is expected of them is also a good idea.
  5. Pay attention to playing styles. Often clubs play very good offensive or defensive football. And often those styles collide. Very strong offensive clubs matched against each other will often play high-scoring games. The opposite is true for defensive clubs.
  6. Don’t listen to crowd claims: upsets are pretty common. The Champions League is one of the few tournaments that is well-known for its unpredictability so it is important to take each bet on a match-by-match basis. Crowds have huge opinions on these games, but what is often forgotten is that the crowds that cheer together cry together as well. Don’t trust the crowd.
  7. When dealing with low-scoring clubs, look for bargains. When dealing with low-scoring or defensive clubs, find good lines on the over/under.
  8. Shop different lines at the bookies. While often they will try to get close together around game time, that’s not always the case. Once you’ve decided your football tips look for the best deals.
  9. Over/under bets can be very profitable in the Champions League. Because of the random nature of team selection and qualification, finding offensive and defensive matchups is easy, so make sure to use spread betting when it comes to those games.
  10. You can’t use the same rules betting on UCL as you can on the BPL. UCL is a tricky beast, and often requires a lot of background studying to be really good at. League trends often don’t matter, and clubs doing poorly in their national league having qualified for UCL the year before will often try their best to focus on a Cup to bring home. Don’t assume underdogs from current league play unless there’s a good reason.
football accumulator tips

5 tips how to improve football accumulators

Americans who wager on soccer may not be as familiar with football accumulators as their fellow punters across the pond.

An ‘accumulator’ bet in football (soccer) is one of the most common football wagers made by punters across Europe…well, outside of North America.

An ‘accumulator’ is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those bets winning together.

For those football bettors or punters who use free football tips, or purchase their tips from top tipsters, tend to believe that single wagers give punters better chances of turning profit in the long run. Read more

poisson distribution soccer betting

Poisson Distribution: How to calculate winning soccer bets

Poisson Distribution is one of the most efficient ways to gauge a winner in soccer (football). When the poisson distribution system is used correctly, it can help determine the average goal scoring probability between two sides. That said, it can also be one of the more complex ways to calculate a potential winner, and it is isn’t perfect. So we’ll go over the basics here.

Poisson Distribution is based upon formulas, so if you aren’t fantastic with long division and multiplication, you might want a calculator.

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

If the above looks complicated and makes you say WTF, don’t worry. We’ll break it down for you. Basically, this is the principle formula behind the poisson distribution system, and what this formula does is it calculates the probability of the success of an event (in this case, a goal) over a specific window (in this case, a game). So let’s leave that alone for a bit and we’ll take two clubs. Since we need a window of time to gauge overall skill level, we’ll use a full season.

Related: 11 Tips: How beginner soccer punters should bet on soccer (football)

The first thing you’re going to do is deal with the total goals scored over a season. So first, divide the home teams’s goals by total games played. Then, divide the away goals by total games played. This will produce two decimal numbers for home and away strength, which then give us total attack strength for the club during the defined period.

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Next, you’ll need the number of goals conceded. There’s no math involved here, simply invert the numbers. (If the home and away strength were 1.574 and 1.195, respectively, then the goals conceded will be 1.195 and 1.574 for the goals conceded.)

Repeat this process for the away team.

Ready for Some Multiplication?

After you’ve calculated the numbers above for both teams, the answers become a little clearer. The key to remember here for the poisson distribution system is that you are not calculating a single set of probabilities, but two sets: one for the home team and one for the away team.

So the first thing to do is calculate the home team’s attack strength.

Take the number of goals scored at home over the time period (the season) by the home team and divide that number by number of home games.

After this, divide the answer by the season’s average home goals scored per game to get the home team’s Attack Strength.

Home Goals = Home Attack * Away Defense * Average No. Goals

Once this is done, repeat the process in the inverse with the away team’s numbers, calculating as:

Away Goals = Away Attack * Home Defense * Average No. Goals

This will likely produce two decimal numbers, one higher than the other. While that might be somewhat useful on the money line or 1X2 betting or asian handicapping, when using the poisson distribution system for making your soccer picks or other sports betting, that will not be useful for calculating goal probabilities.

This is the best time to introduce the Poisson Distribution Calculator. After calculating the above, you can simply plug the numbers into the calculator for the probability of each team to score a goal. By using a margin of, say, four goals, you can simply place a goal outcome (say, between 1-4) in the “random variable”, and the likelihood of a team scoring (the multiplied formula), and the calculator will issue that probability. By using the calculator with both teams up to a set number of goals, you can have a pretty good estimate in terms of highest probability in total score, and can compare it accordingly to the sports book.

One word of advice, however: soccer is unique in that a change in the narrative can completely throw numbers to the wind. Pay attention to things before you make our football tips, such as key stats that can play a major influence on impacting the score, and the game outcome.

football betting strategy tips (soccer)

11 Tips: How beginner soccer punters should bet on soccer (football)

If your new to football betting (aka soccer to those North Americans), or an avid sports bettor or investor and thinking of broadening your betting portfolio to soccer, it’s important you understand the fundamentals of soccer betting before you lay your wagers with the soccer bookie.

Whether you plan to wager with your bookie or an online sportsbook on the Premier league, Champions league or any another other European or international soccer league, you need to know how to bet on soccer, and what to wager on.

In this post we’ll cover a few important betting tips the sports investor needs to consider before betting on any soccer game. And for a selection of soccer matches our members use in their soccer betting strategy, consider browsing our selection of soccer predictions and picks. Read more

betting banks

BETTING BANKS: 3 secret betting strategies used by professional sports bettors

Any seasoned sports investor will tell you there are a hundreds of different sports gambling strategies and betting systems used across the globe across a variety of sports as NFL football to European football to horse racing.

When a sports investor applies a betting strategy to his investment portfolio, he’s not talking about a strategy that involves gambling on a game via a sports pick determined by a flip of a coin or listening to ESPN’s Monday night football predictions.

The sports investor is talking about a betting strategy or investment strategy that is designed to see an initial investment as his bankroll, grow over time while minimizing risk, and do so at a rate that is better than a similar risk/reward investment, such as the equity markets on Wall Street. Thus the key goal of the sports investors betting strategy is to minimize risk, and attain a profitable rate of return….over time. Read more

1X2 soccer betting

Soccer: What is 1×2 betting?

I admit, when I first got into sports investing and looked into the football (soccer) betting markets, the 1X2 betting was at first confusing. Not to my surprise, I was not alone, but after getting very familiar with 1X2, I wanted to simplify it for our North American sports investor members who are magnets for North American sports, and neglect the investment potential out of the European football betting markets.

1X2 betting is also known as three-way betting, and simply refers to betting on a home win, a draw or an away win. Read more

asian handicapping explained for betting on football

Soccer: How to read asian handicapping

In football (soccer), asian handicap betting is among the most popular form of betting for punters around the world, exclusive of the United States bettors who many prefer the traditional moneyline and totals (over/under).

The main advantage of asian handicapping (AH) is that the draw result is eliminated. In the standard bet, the possibilities of each outcome is 33%. In AH, the draw option is eliminated. Asian handicap betting offers the underdog of the game with an early lead before the kick off. You have two options. Betting on home or away. Though for the football investor and punters, we’ve seen them compliment the asian handicap betting strategy with 3 other advanced soccer betting tips. Read more

10 types of sports bettors, which one are you?

In the sports betting market, there are a variety of personalities or types of sports bettors who frequent the online sports books. Especially around major sporting events as the NFL Superbowl, to MLB World Series and one of my favourites – FIFA World Cup predictions, we see a variety of individuals who visit the online sportsbooks, and seek handicapper or tipster services.

From gamblers to recreational sports bettors to Sharps to investors, we’ve always maintained a focus on attracting and nurturing those individuals who view sports betting not as gambling, but as another investment vehicle to include in their investment portfolio among 401K, stocks, bonds, options, etc.

Think about it. When you understand the financial markets as the NASDAQ and NYSE are influenced by uncontrollable factors such as big player moves, and price swings resulting from psychological and emotional factors, you’ve got to wonder how much data-driven insight can play a roll to win. Read more

Both teams to score soccer betting strategy

Soccer Betting Strategy: Both Teams to Score Market

In the spirit of World Cup approaching and the UEFA Champions League our soccer predictions coverage is only growing for our members to make insightful decisions and profits. So it’s only timely in our sports betting strategy coverage we cover a number of soccer betting strategies for our members, beginning with one of the hottest trending strategies punters are using in their soccer betting systems; the both team to score market strategy.

The both teams to score market has become one of the fastest growing strategies among sports bettors in the last few years. Why it’s popularity? Well, among many things within industries, so too in the sport betting markets do some sports betting strategies come and go, and others trend over time as recreational sports bettors evolve their approach to betting and seek out other winning sports betting strategies and betting systems.

Unlike the Fibonacci soccer betting strategy that’s been around longer than I can remember, the betting strategy of both team to score market only recently come onto the sports betting scene when one of the leading sportsbooks (Betfred) introduced to the soccer betting market their Goals Galore market. The Goals Galore allows the soccer bettor to choose their matches from a large coupon (chosen by the sportsbook), before each selection gets added to the an accumulator type bet.

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